Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 11 teams · Dallas Texans (all teams)

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4th

4-0-2 record · 6 played

2.00 points per game

+7 goal diff · 18–11

WWWWLlast 5

74% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2

-0.22 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia
4th · 2.00 PPG

SOLAR PRE- KATIC
11th · 0.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6A ↗

82% 10%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.8 for, 1.2 against · 2.57 expected points)

Season so far	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia	SOLAR PRE- KATIC
Position	4th	11th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-2	0-0-6
Points per game	2.00	0.00
Goals for / game	3.0	1.0
Goals against / game	1.8	3.5
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	L W W W W	L L L L L
Biggest win	7–1 at Kernow Storm FC Pre	—
Worst loss	2–4 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West	2–7 vs SOLAR PRE- JAIME
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.72	-1.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.22	-0.02

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic — we 3–1; they 0–4. DKSC Pre- Arana Black — we 1–0; they 1–3. Kernow Storm FC Pre — we 7–1; they 1–2. Alpha Forms Pre — we 3–2; they 1–2. SOLAR PRE- JAIME — we 2–3; they 2–7.

Game plan

They struggle to score
SOLAR PRE- KATIC average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 1 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
SOLAR PRE- KATIC have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- KATIC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia – SOLAR PRE- KATIC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.14 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 2.14 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.86 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Loss 1.71 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

74% top 4

26% below the top 4

4.2 average finish

1st
2nd 1%
3rd 8%
4th 64%
5th 20%
6th 5%
7th 1%
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sting Pre- Lucero	3.00 (+1.00)	1st (2.74)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera	3.00 (+1.00)	2nd (2.66)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	SOLAR PRE- JAIME	2.50 (+0.50)	3rd (2.33)	8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

18 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia to SOLAR PRE- KATIC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

3 even

3 favour them

+2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 8th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	SOLAR PRE- KATIC 11th · 0-0-6 · GD -15	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–1	2.57	2.08	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–2	0.94	1.94	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sting Pre- Lucero

+29

3.00

WWWWW

-1.09

+0.12

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	10–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- KATIC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	5–1	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera

3.00

WWWW

+0.11

-0.53

100%

1.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	5–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC Pre- Arana Black See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	4–1	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- JAIME

+12

2.50

WWLWW

-0.32

+0.63

99%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	7–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	4–1	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia

2.00

WWWWL

-0.22

-0.15

74%

4.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- KATIC · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alpha Forms Pre

1.50

LLWLW

-0.10

+0.63

5.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West

1.50

LWLWL

+0.59

-1.69

18%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	3–5
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre- Arana Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	2–2	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	5–1	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic

-3

1.20

WLLWL

+0.14

-0.68

7.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	4–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Arana Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	4–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Arana Black

-6

1.20

LWLLW

+0.31

+0.41

7.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	1–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–3	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- CASTRO

-15

0.60

LLLLW

-0.19

+1.11

9.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–4	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC Pre

-26

0.50

LWLLL

+0.38

-0.06

9.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–10
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	1–7
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	1–8

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	1–4	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- KATIC

-15

0.00

LLLLL

-0.02

+1.90

10.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	2–7
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Lucero See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–5	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.