Portage SC Pre- Green
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU11 · 9 teams · Portage Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
Portage Soccer Complex, Field 1N ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.7 against · 1.53 expected points)
| Season so far | Portage SC Pre- Green | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W W | L W W L D |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at Detroit City FC West Pre | 5–1 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 1–3 at Michigan Burn Pre Black |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.28 | +0.27 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.13 | -0.10 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 4 1–2 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY (L)
Common opponents: Detroit City FC West Pre — we 2–0; they 1–2. TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue — we 1–2; they 1–1.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 44% / draw 22% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue sit 2nd on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.80.A point moves us above TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Portage SC Pre- Green – Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 12%
- 2nd 20%
- 3rd 23%
- 4th 21%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 4%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 2.50 (+0.70) | 1st (2.14) | 16 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 2 | TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue | 1.80 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.86) | A point next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Portage SC Pre- Green to Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 05:00 PM no score posted |
Michigan Burn Pre Black 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.66 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 11 12:30 PM no score posted |
Michigan Rangers FC Pre 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Capital Area Sports Plex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.63 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.73 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM |
Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +7 |
Home Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 9th · 0-1-3 · GD -9 |
Home Portage Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 1.73 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -0.16 | -0.01 | 97% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 vs Detroit City FC West Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | WDWDD | +0.35 | -0.61 | 90% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre Black · Sun Oct 25 at Detroit City FC West Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | -0.13 | -0.09 | 76% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre Black · Sun Oct 11 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | DLWWL | -0.10 | -0.01 | 60% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Burn Pre Black | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLDW | -0.43 | +0.56 | 15% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nationals SC Capital Area Pre | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 8 | 1.33 | DWLDW | -0.18 | -0.16 | 50% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Burn Pre Black · Sun May 2 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 6 | 1.00 | WLWLL | +0.24 | -0.46 | 12% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDWL | +0.15 | +0.11 | 1% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE · Sun Oct 25 vs TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.44 | +0.06 | 1% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Detroit City FC West Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sat Nov 7 at TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.