Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU11 · 9 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM
Premier Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.3 against · 1.48 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE | Detroit City FC West Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-3 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 0.25 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L L | L W D L L |
| Biggest win | — | 2–1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY |
| Worst loss | 2–6 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 2–7 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.20 | -0.93 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.44 | +0.15 |
Common opponents: Portage SC Pre- Green — we 2–3; they 0–2. Michigan Burn Pre Black — we 1–1; they 1–3. Nationals SC Capital Area Pre — we 1–5; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 19% / loss 38%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Detroit City FC West Pre sit 8th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.25.A win moves us above Detroit City FC West Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Detroit City FC West Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE – Detroit City FC West Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.40 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Win 0.80 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 9th— holds |
| Draw 0.40 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Loss 0.20 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 8%
- 8th 26%
- 9th 62%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.15 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 2.50 (+2.25) | 1st (2.14) | 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 2 | TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue | 1.80 (+1.55) | 2nd (1.86) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 1.80 (+1.55) | 3rd (1.73) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 4 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 1.67 (+1.42) | 4th (1.60) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 5 | Michigan Burn Pre Black | 1.40 (+1.15) | 6th (1.23) | 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 6 | Nationals SC Capital Area Pre | 1.33 (+1.08) | 5th (1.50) | 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 7 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 1.00 (+0.75) | 7th (1.22) | 12 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 8 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 0.80 (+0.55) | 8th (0.81) | Win next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE to Detroit City FC West Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.06 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM |
Detroit City FC West Pre 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.48 | 0.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 05:00 PM |
TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue 2nd · 2-3-0 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 0.54 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
Portage SC Pre- Green 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.58 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Michigan Rangers FC Pre 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
28th Ave |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
2–3 | 0.80 | 0.58 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:30 AM |
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.60 | 0.58 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 02:00 PM |
Michigan Rangers FC Pre 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -5 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–3 | 1.13 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 06:30 PM |
Nationals SC Capital Area Pre 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +6 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.68 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 05:00 PM |
TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue 2nd · 2-3-0 · GD +3 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.73 | 0.64 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -0.16 | -0.01 | 97% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 vs Detroit City FC West Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | WDWDD | +0.35 | -0.61 | 88% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre Black · Sun Oct 25 at Detroit City FC West Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | -0.13 | -0.09 | 75% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre Black · Sun Oct 11 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | DLWWL | -0.10 | -0.01 | 60% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Burn Pre Black | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLDW | -0.43 | +0.56 | 16% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nationals SC Capital Area Pre | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 8 | 1.33 | DWLDW | -0.18 | -0.16 | 50% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Burn Pre Black · Sun May 2 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 6 | 1.00 | WLWLL | +0.24 | -0.46 | 13% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDWL | +0.15 | +0.11 | 1% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE · Sun Oct 25 vs TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.44 | +0.06 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Detroit City FC West Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sat Nov 7 at TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.