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Michigan Burn Pre Black

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU11 · 9 teams · Michigan Burn (all teams)

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5th
2-1-2 record · 5 played
1.40 points per game
+1 goal diff · 9–8
LWLDWlast 5
15% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0
-0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 09:00 AM

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Michigan Burn Pre Black
5th · 1.40 PPG
at
Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre
1st · 2.50 PPG

East Lansing Soccer Complex, Field N5 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.4 against · 0.86 expected points)

Season so farMichigan Burn Pre BlackCap City Athletic 1847 Pre
Position5th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-1-23-1-0
Points per game1.402.50
Goals for / game1.83.3
Goals against / game1.61.5
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W D L W LD W W W
Biggest win3–1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY6–2 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE
Worst loss1–3 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.03+0.88
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.43-0.16

Common opponents: Michigan Rangers FC Pre — we 1–3; they 4–2. Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE — we 1–1; they 6–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at East Lansing Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Burn Pre Black – Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.17 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3
Win
1.67 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.33 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2
Loss
1.17 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
15% top 4
85% below the top 4
6.0 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 26%
  7. 7th 32%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 2.50 (+1.10) 1st (2.14) 16 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue 1.80 (+0.40) 2nd (1.86) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
3 Portage SC Pre- Green 1.80 (+0.40) 3rd (1.73) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
4 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 1.67 (+0.27) 4th (1.60) 9 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Michigan Burn Pre Black to Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
7 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–6 1–3 2–4 3–1 2–2 0–1 1–2 5–1 1–1 2–2 3–1 2–4 2–7 1–5 1–5 Michigan Burn Pre B… 5th Nationals SC Macomb… 9th Michigan Rangers FC… 7th Detroit City FC Wes… 8th Nationals SC Macomb… 4th Nationals SC Capita… 6th TKO Premier SC Pre-… 2nd Cap City Athletic 1… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 29 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.56 · 1st hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 20
05:00 PM
no score posted		 Portage SC Pre- Green
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–2 1.13 1.35 Upside
Sun Sep 20
11:00 AM
no score posted		 TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue
2nd · 2-3-0 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.04 1.31 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +7		 Away far trip
East Lansing Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 1.25 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:30 PM		 Nationals SC Capital Area Pre
6th · 2-2-2 · GD +6		 Away far trip
Capital Sportsplex Lansing		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 1.00 1.23 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 4310 136+7 102.50 WWWD -0.16 -0.01 97% 1.7
2 TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue 5230 1310+3 91.80 WDWDD +0.35 -0.61 89% 2.7
3 Portage SC Pre- Green 5302 119+2 91.80 WWLWL -0.13 -0.09 76% 3.4
4 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 6312 129+3 101.67 DLWWL -0.10 -0.01 60% 4.0
5 Michigan Burn Pre Black 5212 98+1 71.40 LWLDW -0.43 +0.56 15% 6.0
6 Nationals SC Capital Area Pre 6222 1913+6 81.33 DWLDW -0.18 -0.16 49% 4.5
7 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 6204 1621-5 61.00 WLWLL +0.24 -0.46 12% 6.2
8 Detroit City FC West Pre 5113 715-8 40.80 LLDWL +0.15 +0.11 1% 8.0
9 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 4013 615-9 10.25 LLDL +0.44 +0.06 1% 8.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.