Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU11 · 9 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
Portage Soccer Complex, Field 1N ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.9 against · 1.26 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | Portage SC Pre- Green |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 3-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.80 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L D | L W L W W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 2–0 at Detroit City FC West Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Michigan Burn Pre Black | 1–2 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.27 | +0.28 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.10 | -0.13 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 4 2–1 vs Portage SC Pre- Green (W)
Common opponents: TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue — we 1–1; they 1–2. Detroit City FC West Pre — we 1–2; they 2–0.
Game plan
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Portage Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Portage SC Pre- Green sit 3rd on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.67.A point moves us above Portage SC Pre- Green on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Portage SC Pre- Green game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY – Portage SC Pre- Green) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.57 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 6%
- 2nd 13%
- 3rd 19%
- 4th 23%
- 5th 22%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 5%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 2.50 (+0.83) | 1st (2.14) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue | 1.80 (+0.13) | 2nd (1.86) | A point next game |
| 3 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 1.80 (+0.13) | 3rd (1.73) | A point next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY to Portage SC Pre- Green through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 4th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
Portage SC Pre- Green 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.26 | 1.61 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM |
Michigan Rangers FC Pre 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
28th Ave |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.63 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 9th · 0-1-3 · GD -9 |
Away Premier Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
Nationals SC Capital Area Pre 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.14 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
East Lansing Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:30 AM |
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 9th · 0-1-3 · GD -9 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.25 | 1.60 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +7 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 03:30 PM |
Nationals SC Capital Area Pre 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +6 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.44 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 11:00 AM |
Detroit City FC West Pre 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 02:00 PM |
TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue 2nd · 2-3-0 · GD +3 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
2–1 | 1.46 | 1.60 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -0.16 | -0.01 | 97% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 vs Detroit City FC West Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | WDWDD | +0.35 | -0.61 | 88% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre Black · Sun Oct 25 at Detroit City FC West Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | -0.13 | -0.09 | 74% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre Black · Sun Oct 11 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | DLWWL | -0.10 | -0.01 | 62% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Michigan Burn Pre Black | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLDW | -0.43 | +0.56 | 16% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Nationals SC Capital Area Pre | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 8 | 1.33 | DWLDW | -0.18 | -0.16 | 50% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Burn Pre Black · Sun May 2 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 6 | 1.00 | WLWLL | +0.24 | -0.46 | 12% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDWL | +0.15 | +0.11 | 1% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE · Sun Oct 25 vs TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.44 | +0.06 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Detroit City FC West Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sat Nov 7 at TKO Premier SC Pre- Blue See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.