Colorado Storm Pre- North
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Colorado BU11 · 8 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 09:00 AM
Fort Collins Soccer Complex, FCSC #9 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.1 for, 2.0 against · 1.96 expected points)
| Season so far | Colorado Storm Pre- North | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-1 | 0-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L | L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 3–4 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa | 0–5 vs Colorado Storm South Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.17 | -1.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.92 | +0.92 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 1 of 2.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold concede 4.5/game; worst result 0–5 vs Colorado Storm South Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 60% / draw 16% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Fort Collins Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Real Colorado Pre- Olympico sit 5th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Real Colorado Pre- Olympico on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm Pre- North – Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 0.50 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 24%
- 6th 32%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 5%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Storm South Pre | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.30) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 2 | Pride SC Pre- Copa | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.20) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 3 | Colorado Rush Pre- White | 2.00 (+2.00) | 3rd (1.72) | 14 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 4 | Colorado EDGE Pre- United | 1.50 (+1.50) | 4th (1.53) | Win next game |
| 5 | Real Colorado Pre- Olympico | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.43) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
3 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 02:00 PM no score posted |
Real Colorado Pre- Olympico 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Northwest Open Spaces |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.49 | 0.74 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold 8th · 0-0-2 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–2 | 1.96 | 1.15 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 11:30 AM |
Colorado Rush Pre- White 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home Northwest Open Spaces |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.09 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 09:30 AM |
Colorado Storm South Pre 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Challenger Regional Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 09:00 AM |
Colorado EDGE Pre- United 4th · 1-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Long Lake Regional Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.21 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:30 AM |
Real Colorado North National Pre 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -7 |
Home Northwest Open Spaces |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.23 | 1.22 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Colorado Storm South Pre | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.68 | +0.02 | 97% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado Storm Pre- North See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pride SC Pre- Copa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.76 | +0.08 | 96% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm South Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Colorado Rush Pre- White | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.95 | +0.50 | 77% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Colorado EDGE Pre- United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.97 | -0.38 | 53% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado North National Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Real Colorado Pre- Olympico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.02 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Oct 18 at Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado Storm Pre- North | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.92 | -0.14 | 28% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Real Colorado Pre- Olympico · Sun Nov 1 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Real Colorado North National Pre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.79 | -0.08 | 1% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Sun Nov 15 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado Storm South Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.92 | -0.12 | 2% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado North National Pre · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.