Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Colorado BU11 · 8 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 09:00 AM
Fort Collins Soccer Complex, FCSC #9 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.0 for, 3.1 against · 0.87 expected points)
| Season so far | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold | Colorado Storm Pre- North |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-2 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L | L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs Colorado Storm South Pre | 3–4 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.40 | -0.17 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.92 | +0.92 |
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Colorado Storm Pre- North concede 4.0/game; worst result 3–4 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs Colorado Storm South Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Real Colorado North National Pre sit 7th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Real Colorado North National Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm Pre- North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold – Colorado Storm Pre- North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
5th▲ up 3 | 5th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
6th▲ up 2 | 6th▲ up 2 | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 36%
- 8th 47%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.14 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Storm South Pre | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.30) | 21 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Pride SC Pre- Copa | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.20) | 21 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Colorado Rush Pre- White | 2.00 (+2.00) | 3rd (1.72) | 14 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 4 | Colorado EDGE Pre- United | 1.50 (+1.50) | 4th (1.53) | 11 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 5 | Real Colorado Pre- Olympico | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.43) | Already ahead |
| 6 | Colorado Storm Pre- North | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.22) | Already ahead |
| 7 | Real Colorado North National Pre | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (0.54) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
3 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.12 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Colorado Storm Pre- North 6th · 0-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
2–3 | 0.87 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
Real Colorado North National Pre 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -7 |
Away Dry Creek Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–2 | 1.29 | 0.54 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM |
Real Colorado Pre- Olympico 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.58 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Colorado EDGE Pre- United 4th · 1-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Pride SC Pre- Copa 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.29 | 0.56 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Colorado Storm South Pre | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.68 | +0.02 | 97% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado Storm Pre- North See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pride SC Pre- Copa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.76 | +0.08 | 96% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm South Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Colorado Rush Pre- White | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.95 | +0.50 | 77% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Colorado EDGE Pre- United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.97 | -0.38 | 53% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado North National Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Real Colorado Pre- Olympico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.02 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Oct 18 at Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado Storm Pre- North | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.92 | -0.14 | 28% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Real Colorado Pre- Olympico · Sun Nov 1 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Real Colorado North National Pre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.79 | -0.08 | 1% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Sun Nov 15 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado Storm South Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.92 | -0.12 | 2% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado North National Pre · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.