Virginia Valor FC

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Robinson High School, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.0 against · 1.19 expected points)

Common opponents: Virginia Reign — we 1–7; they 0–7. Richmond United Blue — we 0–10; they 0–4. Stafford Revolution — we 2–1; they 0–0. Beach FC — we 1–5; they 1–2. Great Falls Reston Soccer Club — we 0–1; they 0–3.

• They struggle to score
  BRYC Academy average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 5.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  BRYC Academy concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–7 vs Virginia Reign.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–10 at Richmond United Blue, 0–1 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 32%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:00 PM at Robinson High School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Stafford Revolution sit 13th on 0.83 PPG; we are on 0.50.

  A point moves us above Stafford Revolution on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the BRYC Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Virginia Valor FC – BRYC Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th
7. 7th
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th
11. 11th
12. 12th 6%
13. 13th 17%
14. 14th 29%
15. 15th 41%
16. 16th 8%
17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 0.86 PPG if we win out).