TableChase Clubs

LMVSC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Virginia GU13 · 17 teams · Lee-Mt. Vernon Sports Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 46 minutes ago.
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15th
1-0-6 record · 7 played
0.43 points per game
-16 goal diff · 2–18
LLLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.3
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:45 PM

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LMVSC
15th · 0.43 PPG
vs
Vienna Youth Soccer
6th · 2.00 PPG

Thomas Edison High School Auxiliary , Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.6 for, 2.8 against · 0.31 expected points)

Season so farLMVSCVienna Youth Soccer
Position15th6th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-64-0-2
Points per game0.432.00
Goals for / game0.32.7
Goals against / game2.61.2
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless61
Form (recent first)W L L L LL W L W W
Biggest win2–0 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy7–0 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy
Worst loss0–5 at VSA0–3 at Virginia United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.50+0.92
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01+0.05

Common opponents: VSA — we 0–5; they 1–2. Richmond United Orange — we 0–4; they 3–2. Richmond United Red — we 0–2; they 3–0. SOCA Elite — we 0–1; they 2–0. Virginia United — we 0–4; they 0–3. Villarreal Virginia Academy — we 2–0; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Vienna Youth Soccer score 2.7/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–5 at VSA, 0–2 at Prince William Courage, 0–4 vs Richmond United Orange, 0–2 at Richmond United Red, 0–1 vs SOCA Elite, 0–4 at Virginia United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 6%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Virginia Valor FC sit 14th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.43.

    A point moves us above Virginia Valor FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Vienna Youth Soccer game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LMVSC – Vienna Youth Soccer) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.38 PPG		 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 2
Win
0.75 PPG		 14th▲ up 1 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG		 15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1
Loss
0.38 PPG		 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 3%
  15. 15th 52%
  16. 16th 42%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 0.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 VSA 3.00 (+2.57) 1st (2.88) 21 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Virginia Reign 2.50 (+2.07) 2nd (2.54) 17 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Virginia United 2.40 (+1.97) 4th (2.33) 17 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Arlington Soccer Association 2.40 (+1.97) 3rd (2.45) 17 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Richmond United Blue 2.17 (+1.74) 5th (2.18) 15 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Vienna Youth Soccer 2.00 (+1.57) 6th (2.01) 13 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Prince William Courage 1.80 (+1.37) 7th (1.81) 12 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Richmond United Orange 1.50 (+1.07) 8th (1.58) 9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 SOCA Elite 1.50 (+1.07) 10th (1.26) 9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Beach FC 1.40 (+0.97) 11th (1.08) 9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
11 Richmond United Red 1.00 (+0.57) 12th (0.98) 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
12 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.57) 9th (1.27) 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
13 Stafford Revolution 0.83 (+0.40) 13th (0.84) 4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
14 Virginia Valor FC 0.60 (+0.17) 14th (0.67) A point next game

How the results connect

28 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link LMVSC to Vienna Youth Soccer through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
27 favour them
-3.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 3–0 0–1 0–2 0–5 2–1 2–0 0–7 0–2 0–3 0–4 2–3 0–2 0–1 2–1 9–0 7–0 0–1 2–1 LMVSC 15th Virginia United 3rd SOCA Elite 9th VSA 1st Villarreal Virginia… 17th Richmond United Red 11th Richmond United Ora… 8th Prince William Cour… 7th Vienna Youth Soccer 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.92 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
12:45 PM		 Vienna Youth Soccer
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +9		 Home
Thomas Edison High School Auxiliary 		●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–2 0.31 0.41 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 VSA 7700 234+19 213.00 WWWWW -0.24 +0.10 100% 1.1
2 Virginia Reign 6501 244+20 152.50 WWWLW -0.22 -0.52 96% 2.5
3 Virginia United 5401 182+16 122.40 LWWWW -0.46 +0.19 67% 3.7
4 Arlington Soccer Association 5401 145+9 122.40 WLWWW +0.07 -1.10 83% 3.6
5 Richmond United Blue 6411 233+20 132.17 WWLWW -0.31 +0.05 46% 4.7
6 Vienna Youth Soccer 6402 167+9 122.00 WWLWL +0.05 -0.58 7% 5.9
7 Prince William Courage 5302 75+2 91.80 WLWWL +0.58 -0.91 2% 7.0
8 Richmond United Orange 6303 119+2 91.50 WLLWW +0.29 -0.98 0% 8.0
9 SOCA Elite 4202 53+2 61.50 WLWL -0.89 +1.01 0% 10.0
10 Beach FC 5212 1013-3 71.40 WLLDW -0.60 +1.63 0% 11.1
11 Richmond United Red 6204 119+2 61.00 LWLLL -0.20 +0.95 0% 11.5
12 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club 4112 55+0 41.00 WLDL +0.35 -0.45 0% 9.9
13 Stafford Revolution 6123 410-6 50.83 DWLLD -0.05 +0.05 0% 12.6
14 Virginia Valor FC 5104 530-25 30.60 LLWLL +0.79 -0.81 0% 14.0
15 LMVSC 7106 218-16 30.43 LLLLW -0.01 +0.92 0% 15.3
16 BRYC Academy 5014 116-15 10.20 LLLLD +0.62 -0.78 0% 15.1
17 Villarreal Virginia Academy 6006 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +0.48 +0.34 0% 17.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.