Beach FC

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warhill sports complex, Turf 4 ↗ · turf far trip

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.1 for, 4.5 against · 0.17 expected points)

Common opponents: BRYC Academy — we 2–1; they 7–0. Richmond United Blue — we 0–6; they 1–2. Stafford Revolution — we 1–3; they 5–0. Great Falls Reston Soccer Club — we 2–2; they 1–0. Virginia Valor FC — we 5–1; they 7–1.

• Respect their attack
  Virginia Reign score 4.0/game — well above the league's 1.8.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Hard to break down
  Virginia Reign concede only 0.7/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

  Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at Richmond United Blue.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 4%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Away game
  Kickoff 12:15 PM at warhill sports complex.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  SOCA Elite sit 9th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.40.

  A point moves us above SOCA Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Virginia Reign game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach FC – Virginia Reign) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–4 loss we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th 1%
9. 9th 5%
10. 10th 15%
11. 11th 46%
12. 12th 29%
13. 13th 5%
14. 14th <1%
15. 15th
16. 16th
17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.86 PPG if we win out).