TableChase Clubs

BRYC Academy

ECNL Regional League Girls · Virginia GU13 · 17 teams · Braddock Road Youth Club (all teams)

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16th
0-1-4 record · 5 played
0.20 points per game
-15 goal diff · 1–16
LLLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.1
+0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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BRYC Academy
16th · 0.20 PPG
vs
Arlington Soccer Association
4th · 2.40 PPG

Robinson High School, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.7 for, 3.3 against · 0.23 expected points)

Season so farBRYC AcademyArlington Soccer Association
Position16th4th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-44-0-1
Points per game0.202.40
Goals for / game0.22.8
Goals against / game3.21.0
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)D L L L LW W W L W
Biggest win—7–1 vs Virginia Valor FC
Worst loss0–7 vs Virginia Reign1–3 at Virginia Reign
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.67+1.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.62+0.07

Common opponents: Great Falls Reston Soccer Club — we 0–3; they 2–0. Virginia Reign — we 0–7; they 1–3. Richmond United Blue — we 0–4; they 2–1. Stafford Revolution — we 0–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Arlington Soccer Association score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club, 0–7 vs Virginia Reign, 0–4 at Richmond United Blue, 0–0 at Stafford Revolution.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Arlington Soccer Association have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    LMVSC sit 15th on 0.43 PPG; we are on 0.20.

    A point moves us above LMVSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arlington Soccer Association game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BRYC Academy – Arlington Soccer Association) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.17 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1
Win
0.67 PPG		 14th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 2 15th▲ up 1
Draw
0.33 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1
Loss
0.17 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 37%
  15. 15th 10%
  16. 16th 49%
  17. 17th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 VSA 3.00 (+2.80) 1st (2.88) 20 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Virginia Reign 2.50 (+2.30) 2nd (2.54) 17 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Virginia United 2.40 (+2.20) 4th (2.33) 16 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Arlington Soccer Association 2.40 (+2.20) 3rd (2.45) 16 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Richmond United Blue 2.17 (+1.97) 5th (2.18) 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Vienna Youth Soccer 2.00 (+1.80) 6th (2.01) 13 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Prince William Courage 1.80 (+1.60) 7th (1.81) 12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Richmond United Orange 1.50 (+1.30) 8th (1.58) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 SOCA Elite 1.50 (+1.30) 10th (1.26) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Beach FC 1.40 (+1.20) 11th (1.08) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
11 Richmond United Red 1.00 (+0.80) 12th (0.98) 6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
12 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.80) 9th (1.27) 6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
13 Stafford Revolution 0.83 (+0.63) 13th (0.84) 5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection
14 Virginia Valor FC 0.60 (+0.40) 14th (0.67) A point next game
15 LMVSC 0.43 (+0.23) 15th (0.41) A point next game

How the results connect

19 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link BRYC Academy to Arlington Soccer Association through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
18 favour them
-4.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 0–2 0–4 1–2 0–7 3–1 0–3 0–2 10–0 1–7 0–0 2–1 0–1 0–5 1–2 2–2 5–1 BRYC Academy 16th Stafford Revolution 13th Richmond United Blue 5th Virginia Reign 2nd Great Falls Reston … 12th Beach FC 10th Virginia Valor FC 14th Arlington Soccer As… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.78 · 13th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Arlington Soccer Association
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +9		 Home
Robinson High School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.23 0.20 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Virginia Valor FC
14th · 1-0-4 · GD -25		 Home
Robinson High School · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–1 1.56 0.40 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 VSA 7700 234+19 213.00 WWWWW -0.24 +0.10 100% 1.0
2 Virginia Reign 6501 244+20 152.50 WWWLW -0.22 -0.52 97% 2.5
3 Virginia United 5401 182+16 122.40 LWWWW -0.46 +0.19 67% 3.7
4 Arlington Soccer Association 5401 145+9 122.40 WLWWW +0.07 -1.10 82% 3.7
5 Richmond United Blue 6411 233+20 132.17 WWLWW -0.31 +0.05 48% 4.7
6 Vienna Youth Soccer 6402 167+9 122.00 WWLWL +0.05 -0.58 5% 5.9
7 Prince William Courage 5302 75+2 91.80 WLWWL +0.58 -0.91 2% 7.0
8 Richmond United Orange 6303 119+2 91.50 WLLWW +0.29 -0.98 0% 8.0
9 SOCA Elite 4202 53+2 61.50 WLWL -0.89 +1.01 0% 10.0
10 Beach FC 5212 1013-3 71.40 WLLDW -0.60 +1.63 0% 11.1
11 Richmond United Red 6204 119+2 61.00 LWLLL -0.20 +0.95 0% 11.5
12 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club 4112 55+0 41.00 WLDL +0.35 -0.45 0% 9.9
13 Stafford Revolution 6123 410-6 50.83 DWLLD -0.05 +0.05 0% 12.6
14 Virginia Valor FC 5104 530-25 30.60 LLWLL +0.79 -0.81 0% 14.0
15 LMVSC 7106 218-16 30.43 LLLLW -0.01 +0.92 0% 15.4
16 BRYC Academy 5014 116-15 10.20 LLLLD +0.62 -0.78 0% 15.1
17 Villarreal Virginia Academy 6006 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +0.48 +0.34 0% 17.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.