TableChase Clubs

FC Westlake White

ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU14 · 14 teams · FC Westlake (all teams)

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13th
1-2-3 record · 6 played
0.83 points per game
-4 goal diff · 3–7
LDLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.0
-0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM

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FC Westlake White
13th · 0.83 PPG
at
Challenge
4th · 2.00 PPG

Burroughs Park, Field 4 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.6 for, 1.6 against · 0.71 expected points)

Season so farFC Westlake WhiteChallenge
Position13th4th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-32-0-1
Points per game0.832.00
Goals for / game0.52.3
Goals against / game1.21.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless41
Form (recent first)D L L D LL W W
Biggest win2–0 vs West Side Alliance5–0 vs West Side Alliance
Worst loss0–3 vs OK Energy FC Texas0–2 vs OK Energy FC Texas
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.46+0.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.09-0.52

Common opponents: West Side Alliance — we 2–0; they 5–0. OK Energy FC Texas — we 0–3; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Challenge score 2.3/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 vs OK Energy FC Texas, 0–1 at SOLAR SC, 0–2 vs Sting Black, 0–0 vs DKSC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Burroughs Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Dallas Texans sit 12th on 0.86 PPG; we are on 0.83.

    A point moves us above Dallas Texans on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Challenge game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Westlake White – Challenge) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.71 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds
Win
1.14 PPG
10th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 3 12th▲ up 1
Draw
0.86 PPG
12th▲ up 1 11th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 1
Loss
0.71 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–1 loss we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 22%
  13. 13th 51%
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth 3.00 (+2.17) 2nd (2.00) 34 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
2 SOLAR SC 2.67 (+1.84) 1st (2.36) 30 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Albion Hurricanes FC 2.00 (+1.17) 3rd (1.83) 21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
4 Challenge 2.00 (+1.17) 5th (1.69) 21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
5 OK Energy FC Texas 1.75 (+0.92) 4th (1.76) 18 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
6 Sting Black 1.75 (+0.92) 6th (1.67) 18 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
7 Sting Royal 1.75 (+0.92) 7th (1.45) 18 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
8 DKSC 1.75 (+0.92) 10th (1.26) 18 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
9 FC Westlake Blue 1.25 (+0.42) 8th (1.38) 12 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
10 Lonestar ATX Royal 1.00 (+0.17) 9th (1.32) A point next game
11 Lonestar SAT 1.00 (+0.17) 11th (1.00) A point next game
12 Dallas Texans 0.86 (+0.03) 12th (0.95) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link FC Westlake White to Challenge through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
4 favour them
-3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 2–0 2–0 0–5 1–2 1–2 0–6 FC Westlake White 13th OK Energy FC Texas 5th West Side Alliance 14th Albion Hurricanes FC 3rd Challenge 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.30 · 2nd hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Challenge
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Burroughs Park
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–1 0.71 0.82 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
Albion Hurricanes FC
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +6
Away far trip
New Territory Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–1 0.59 0.79 Upside
Tue Nov 10
06:00 PM
FC Westlake Blue
9th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Westlake High School Stadium - Chaparral Stadium · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.86 0.80 Upside
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM
Lonestar SAT
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -1
Away far trip
Starcrest Complex
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.93 0.81 Upside
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
Lonestar ATX Royal
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +1
Away
Lakeline Park
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.88 0.82 Upside
Sat May 1
06:00 AM
Sting Royal
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.90 0.82 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +6
Away far trip
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–1 0.61 0.81 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 3300 82+6 93.00 WWW -0.68 +0.21 76% 3.3
2 SOLAR SC 6510 214+17 162.67 WWWWD -0.22 +0.06 99% 1.4
3 Albion Hurricanes FC 3201 93+6 62.00 LWW -0.63 +0.17 60% 4.3
4 Challenge 3201 73+4 62.00 WWL -0.52 +0.17 40% 5.3
5 OK Energy FC Texas 8422 1814+4 141.75 DLDLW +0.23 -0.27 50% 4.6
6 Sting Black 4211 62+4 71.75 LDWW -0.29 +0.15 38% 5.4
7 Sting Royal 4211 65+1 71.75 WWDL -0.20 +0.18 13% 7.4
8 DKSC 4211 610-4 71.75 WLWD +0.11 +0.08 5% 9.0
9 FC Westlake Blue 4121 76+1 51.25 WDLD -0.17 +0.18 12% 7.8
10 Lonestar ATX Royal 4112 54+1 41.00 LWLD -0.18 +0.18 7% 8.3
11 Lonestar SAT 6204 1718-1 61.00 WLWLL -0.10 +0.27 0% 10.8
12 Dallas Texans 7133 914-5 60.86 DLLWD +0.20 -0.02 0% 11.3
13 FC Westlake White 6123 37-4 50.83 LDLLD -0.09 +0.30 0% 12.0
14 West Side Alliance 8008 232-30 00.00 LLLLL +0.24 +0.35 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.