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FC Westlake Blue

ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU14 · 14 teams · FC Westlake (all teams)

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9th
1-2-1 record · 4 played
1.25 points per game
+1 goal diff · 7–6
WDLDlast 4
10% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.8
-0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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FC Westlake Blue
9th · 1.25 PPG
at
Lonestar ATX Royal
10th · 1.00 PPG

Forbes Middle School, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.3 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so farFC Westlake BlueLonestar ATX Royal
Position9th10th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-11-1-2
Points per game1.251.00
Goals for / game1.81.3
Goals against / game1.51.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)D L D WD L W L
Biggest win3–0 at West Side Alliance4–0 at West Side Alliance
Worst loss0–2 at SOLAR SC0–2 at Dallas Texans
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.12+0.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.17-0.18

Common opponents: West Side Alliance — we 3–0; they 4–0. OK Energy FC Texas — we 2–2; they 0–1. SOLAR SC — we 0–2; they 1–1. Dallas Texans — we 2–2; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at SOLAR SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Forbes Middle School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX Royal game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Westlake Blue – Lonestar ATX Royal) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.20 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
1.60 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Draw
1.20 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Loss
1.00 PPG
10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
10% top 4
90% below the top 4
7.8 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.46 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth 3.00 (+1.75) 2nd (2.00) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
2 SOLAR SC 2.67 (+1.42) 1st (2.36) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 Albion Hurricanes FC 2.00 (+0.75) 3rd (1.83) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
4 Challenge 2.00 (+0.75) 5th (1.69) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
5 OK Energy FC Texas 1.75 (+0.50) 4th (1.76) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
6 Sting Black 1.75 (+0.50) 6th (1.67) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
7 Sting Royal 1.75 (+0.50) 7th (1.45) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
8 DKSC 1.75 (+0.50) 10th (1.26) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link FC Westlake Blue to Lonestar ATX Royal through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
3 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–0 3–0 0–4 2–2 2–0 0–2 1–1 0–5 FC Westlake Blue 9th OK Energy FC Texas 5th West Side Alliance 14th Dallas Texans 12th SOLAR SC 2nd Lonestar ATX Royal 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 6th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Royal
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
Forbes Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.24 1.25 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Sting Royal
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Home
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.53 1.29 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +6
Home
Westlake High School
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.10 1.27 Upside
Tue Nov 10
06:00 PM
FC Westlake White
13th · 1-2-3 · GD -4
Home
Westlake High School Stadium - Chaparral Stadium · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–0 1.86 1.34 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
Challenge
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
Hill Country Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.28 1.34 Upside
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
Lonestar SAT
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -1
Home
Parkway Bible Church
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 1.38 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
DKSC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD -4
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.88 1.43 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Sting Black
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.16 1.40 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Albion Hurricanes FC
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.11 1.38 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 3300 82+6 93.00 WWW -0.68 +0.21 78% 3.2
2 SOLAR SC 6510 214+17 162.67 WWWWD -0.22 +0.06 99% 1.4
3 Albion Hurricanes FC 3201 93+6 62.00 LWW -0.63 +0.17 60% 4.3
4 Challenge 3201 73+4 62.00 WWL -0.52 +0.17 42% 5.3
5 OK Energy FC Texas 8422 1814+4 141.75 DLDLW +0.23 -0.27 49% 4.7
6 Sting Black 4211 62+4 71.75 LDWW -0.29 +0.15 38% 5.4
7 Sting Royal 4211 65+1 71.75 WWDL -0.20 +0.18 13% 7.5
8 DKSC 4211 610-4 71.75 WLWD +0.11 +0.08 4% 9.1
9 FC Westlake Blue 4121 76+1 51.25 WDLD -0.17 +0.18 10% 7.8
10 Lonestar ATX Royal 4112 54+1 41.00 LWLD -0.18 +0.18 6% 8.3
11 Lonestar SAT 6204 1718-1 61.00 WLWLL -0.10 +0.27 1% 10.8
12 Dallas Texans 7133 914-5 60.86 DLLWD +0.20 -0.02 0% 11.3
13 FC Westlake White 6123 37-4 50.83 LDLLD -0.09 +0.30 0% 12.0
14 West Side Alliance 8008 232-30 00.00 LLLLL +0.24 +0.35 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.