Challenge STXCL
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU18/19 · 11 teams · Challenge SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.0 against · 1.94 expected points)
| Season so far | Challenge STXCL | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-3 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W L L | L L D L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Challenge East STXCL | 1–0 vs RISE SC STXCL |
| Worst loss | 0–8 vs Coastal Premier STXCL | 0–5 at Coastal Premier STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.26 | -0.73 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.27 | +0.73 |
Common opponents: Coastal Premier STXCL — we 0–8; they 0–5. RISE SC STXCL — we 1–3; they 1–0. AHFC WEST STXCL — we 0–3; they 0–0. Challenge East STXCL — we 5–0; they 0–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–8 vs Coastal Premier STXCL, 0–3 vs AHFC WEST STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 22% / loss 20%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Houstonians FC STXCL II sit 5th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Houstonians FC STXCL II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the AHFC CENTRAL STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Challenge STXCL – AHFC CENTRAL STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.43 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.71 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.43 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.29 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 21%
- 7th 35%
- 8th 14%
- 9th 3%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.10 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coastal Premier STXCL | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.72) | 21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 3.00 (+1.50) | 2nd (2.51) | 21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | RISE SC STXCL | 2.14 (+0.64) | 3rd (2.02) | 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 4 | Dynamos STXCL | 1.83 (+0.33) | 5th (1.58) | 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
| 5 | Houstonians FC STXCL II | 1.50 (+0.00) | 4th (1.62) | A point next game |
How the results connect
21 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Challenge STXCL to AHFC CENTRAL STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.39 · 2nd hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–1 | 1.94 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
Dynamos STXCL 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +6 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Houstonians FC STXCL II 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.05 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 08:00 AM |
AHFC EAST STXCL 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home Zube Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 1.33 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Coastal Premier STXCL | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | +22 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.62 | +0.04 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Fri Nov 6 vs AHFC EAST STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.23 | -0.13 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Fri Nov 6 at Coastal Premier STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | RISE SC STXCL | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 15 | 2.14 | WWWWW | -0.22 | +0.15 | 97% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Houstonians FC STXCL II · Sat Oct 31 at Coastal Premier STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Imperial SC STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Dynamos STXCL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 11 | 1.83 | DLDWW | -0.80 | +1.04 | 40% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Coastal Premier STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Houstonians FC STXCL II · Sat Nov 7 vs Challenge STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Houstonians FC STXCL II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.67 | -0.42 | 47% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL I · Sun Oct 25 at RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Challenge East STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Challenge STXCL | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 9 | 1.50 | LLWLW | -0.27 | +0.39 | 9% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Dynamos STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Houstonians FC STXCL II See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AHFC WEST STXCL | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 8 | 1.14 | WLLDW | +0.15 | -0.56 | 7% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Houstonians FC STXCL I · Sat Nov 7 vs Imperial SC STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Houstonians FC STXCL I | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDWL | +0.10 | +0.12 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Houstonians FC STXCL II · Sun Oct 25 at Challenge East STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs AHFC WEST STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDLL | +0.73 | -0.89 | 0% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC STXCL II See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Challenge East STXCL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.12 | +0.20 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Houstonians FC STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL II · Sun Nov 1 vs Imperial SC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Imperial SC STXCL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 22 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.39 | +0.10 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Challenge East STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.