AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU18/19 · 11 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

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9th

1-1-4 record · 6 played

0.67 points per game

-8 goal diff · 2–10

LLDLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.3

+0.73 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM

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AHFC CENTRAL STXCL
9th · 0.67 PPG

Imperial SC STXCL
11th · 0.00 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 3 ↗

57% 24% 19%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.7 for, 0.9 against · 1.94 expected points)

Season so far	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL	Imperial SC STXCL
Position	9th	11th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-4	0-0-5
Points per game	0.67	0.00
Goals for / game	0.3	0.6
Goals against / game	1.7	4.4
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	4	3
Form (recent first)	L L D L L	L L L L L
Biggest win	1–0 vs RISE SC STXCL	—
Worst loss	0–5 at Coastal Premier STXCL	0–6 vs Coastal Premier STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.73	-2.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.73	+0.39

Common opponents: Dynamos STXCL — we 0–1; they 1–5. Coastal Premier STXCL — we 0–5; they 0–6.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Imperial SC STXCL average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 3 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Imperial SC STXCL concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–6 vs Coastal Premier STXCL.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 vs Challenge East STXCL, 0–0 at AHFC WEST STXCL, 0–1 at Dynamos STXCL, 0–5 at Coastal Premier STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 24% / loss 19%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
Imperial SC STXCL have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
What a win does
Houstonians FC STXCL I sit 8th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.67.
A point moves us above Houstonians FC STXCL I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Imperial SC STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC CENTRAL STXCL – Imperial SC STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.00 PPG	8th▲ up 1	8th▲ up 1	9th— holds
Win 1.00 PPG	8th▲ up 1	8th▲ up 1	9th— holds
Draw 0.71 PPG	9th— holds	8th▲ up 1	10th▼ down 1
Loss 0.57 PPG	10th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

8.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th 1%
6th 5%
7th 13%
8th 38%
9th 31%
10th 10%
11th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.60 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Coastal Premier STXCL	3.00 (+2.33)	1st (2.72)	26 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	AHFC EAST STXCL	3.00 (+2.33)	2nd (2.51)	26 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	RISE SC STXCL	2.14 (+1.47)	3rd (2.02)	18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Dynamos STXCL	1.83 (+1.16)	5th (1.58)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
5	Houstonians FC STXCL II	1.50 (+0.83)	4th (1.62)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	Challenge STXCL	1.50 (+0.83)	7th (1.33)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
7	AHFC WEST STXCL	1.14 (+0.47)	6th (1.36)	8 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
8	Houstonians FC STXCL I	0.80 (+0.13)	9th (0.86)	A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link AHFC CENTRAL STXCL to Imperial SC STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

1 even

2 favour them

+3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.89 · 11th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM	Imperial SC STXCL 11th · 0-0-5 · GD -19	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	1–0	1.94	0.85	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM	Challenge STXCL 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -2	Away Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	20%	1–1	0.84	0.85	Upside
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	Houstonians FC STXCL II 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0	Home Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	23%	0–1	0.93	0.86	Upside
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Houstonians FC STXCL I 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -10	Home Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.48	0.92	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Coastal Premier STXCL

+22

3.00

WWWWW

-0.62

+0.04

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge STXCL (6th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Fri Nov 6 vs AHFC EAST STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	3–1	75%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	5–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC EAST STXCL

+13

3.00

WWWW

-0.23

-0.13

100%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Fri Nov 6 at Coastal Premier STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	5–0	97%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge STXCL (6th)	3–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

2.14

WWWWW

-0.22

+0.15

98%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge STXCL (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Houstonians FC STXCL II · Sat Oct 31 at Coastal Premier STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Imperial SC STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	4–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

1.83

DLDWW

-0.80

+1.04

38%

5.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–4
D	Wed Sep 23	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Coastal Premier STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Houstonians FC STXCL II · Sat Nov 7 vs Challenge STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Challenge STXCL (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL II

1.50

WWLL

+0.67

-0.42

46%

4.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL I · Sun Oct 25 at RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Challenge East STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Challenge STXCL (6th)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge STXCL

-2

1.50

LLWLW

-0.27

+0.39

10%

6.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–8
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Dynamos STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Houstonians FC STXCL II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	1–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC WEST STXCL

1.14

WLLDW

+0.15

-0.56

6.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge STXCL (6th)	3–0
D	Wed Oct 14	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	4–0
D	Wed Sep 23	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Houstonians FC STXCL I · Sat Nov 7 vs Imperial SC STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	2–0	83%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL I

-10

0.80

LLDWL

+0.10

+0.12

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	0–6
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	4–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Challenge STXCL (6th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Houstonians FC STXCL II · Sun Oct 25 at Challenge East STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs AHFC WEST STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

-8

0.67

LLDLL

+0.73

-0.89

8.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–1
D	Wed Oct 14	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC STXCL II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Challenge STXCL (6th)	1–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge East STXCL

-14

0.60

LLLWL

+0.12

+0.20

9.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Challenge STXCL (6th)	0–5
W	Sun Oct 4	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Houstonians FC STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL II · Sun Nov 1 vs Imperial SC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	0–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC STXCL

-19

0.00

LLLLL

+0.39

+0.10

10.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL I (8th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Challenge STXCL (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC STXCL II (5th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Challenge East STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (9th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Challenge East STXCL (10th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (7th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	0–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.