TableChase Clubs

Challenge East STXCL

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU18/19 · 11 teams · Challenge SC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 59 minutes ago.
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10th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-14 goal diff · 2–16
LLLWLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.6
+0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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Challenge East STXCL
10th · 0.60 PPG
vs
Houstonians FC STXCL I
9th · 0.67 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.9 against · 1.29 expected points)

Season so farChallenge East STXCLHoustonians FC STXCL I
Position10th9th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-41-1-4
Points per game0.600.67
Goals for / game0.41.2
Goals against / game3.23.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless42
Form (recent first)L W L L LL L W D L
Biggest win2–0 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL4–2 at Imperial SC STXCL
Worst loss0–5 at Challenge STXCL0–6 at RISE SC STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.71-1.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.11+0.17

Common opponents: Dynamos STXCL — we 0–3; they 1–1. RISE SC STXCL — we 0–4; they 0–6. Challenge STXCL — we 0–5; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Houstonians FC STXCL I concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–6 at RISE SC STXCL.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 vs Dynamos STXCL, 0–4 vs AHFC WEST STXCL, 0–4 at RISE SC STXCL, 0–5 at Challenge STXCL.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 36%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Houstonians FC STXCL I sit 9th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above Houstonians FC STXCL I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Houstonians FC STXCL I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Challenge East STXCL – Houstonians FC STXCL I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.67 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Win
1.00 PPG		 8th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 1
Draw
0.67 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Loss
0.50 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 31%
  10. 10th 43%
  11. 11th 14%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Coastal Premier STXCL 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.73) 27 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 AHFC EAST STXCL 2.60 (+2.00) 2nd (2.40) 23 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 RISE SC STXCL 2.14 (+1.54) 3rd (1.99) 19 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Dynamos STXCL 1.83 (+1.23) 5th (1.56) 16 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
5 Houstonians FC STXCL II 1.80 (+1.20) 4th (1.85) 15 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Challenge STXCL 1.50 (+0.90) 7th (1.31) 12 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
7 AHFC WEST STXCL 1.13 (+0.53) 6th (1.38) 9 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
8 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 0.67 (+0.07) 8th (0.91) A point next game
9 Houstonians FC STXCL I 0.67 (+0.07) 9th (0.73) A point next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Challenge East STXCL to Houstonians FC STXCL I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 even
9 favour them
-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 6–0 0–5 3–1 0–3 1–1 3–1 0–4 1–1 4–0 2–0 0–1 0–2 6–1 1–2 3–0 2–4 5–1 2–4 Challenge East STXCL 10th RISE SC STXCL 3rd Challenge STXCL 6th Dynamos STXCL 4th AHFC WEST STXCL 7th AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 8th AHFC EAST STXCL 2nd Houstonians FC STXC… 5th Imperial SC STXCL 11th Houstonians FC STXC… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 6th 11th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 4th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 Houstonians FC STXCL I
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -15		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.29 0.72 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:00 AM		 Houstonians FC STXCL II
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +5		 Away
Dyess Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.23 0.65 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 Imperial SC STXCL
11th · 0-0-5 · GD -19		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.67 0.77 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:00 AM		 AHFC EAST STXCL
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.17 0.71 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Coastal Premier STXCL
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +22		 Away
Dyess Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.03 0.64 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Coastal Premier STXCL 5500 253+22 153.00 WWWWW -0.50 -0.09 100% 1.2
2 AHFC EAST STXCL 5410 163+13 132.60 WWWWD -0.05 -0.22 100% 2.0
3 RISE SC STXCL 7502 1910+9 152.14 WWWWW -0.31 +0.35 95% 3.4
4 Dynamos STXCL 6321 126+6 111.83 DLDWW -0.86 +1.14 24% 5.3
5 Houstonians FC STXCL II 5302 149+5 91.80 WWLLW +0.15 -0.28 76% 4.0
6 Challenge STXCL 6303 1315-2 91.50 LLWLW -0.32 +0.48 4% 6.6
7 AHFC WEST STXCL 8233 107+3 91.13 LLDWD +0.41 -1.90 1% 5.9
8 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 6114 210-8 40.67 LLDLL +0.70 -0.86 0% 8.2
9 Houstonians FC STXCL I 6114 722-15 40.67 LDWLL +0.17 +0.13 0% 9.1
10 Challenge East STXCL 5104 216-14 30.60 LLLWL +0.11 +0.21 0% 9.6
11 Imperial SC STXCL 5005 322-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.41 +0.06 0% 10.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.