Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU15 · 17 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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8th

2-2-1 record · 5 played

1.60 points per game

+3 goal diff · 8–5

DDWLWlast 5

2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.4

-0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold
8th · 1.60 PPG

Lonestar RGV STXCL
12th · 0.80 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 12 ↗ far trip

43% 26% 31%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.1 against · 1.55 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold	Lonestar RGV STXCL
Position	8th	12th
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-1	1-1-3
Points per game	1.60	0.80
Goals for / game	1.6	1.2
Goals against / game	1.0	1.6
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W L W D D	L D L L W
Biggest win	3–0 vs PSC STXCL NextUp	2–0 at Challenge East STXCL
Worst loss	1–4 vs TC Premier SC STXCL	2–4 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.39	-0.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.09	+0.40

Common opponents: Challenge Aggieland STXCL — we 1–1; they 2–4. AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I — we 0–0; they 1–2. TC Premier SC STXCL — we 1–4; they 1–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 26% / loss 31%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at ASP / CC.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
TC Premier SC STXCL sit 7th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.60.
A point moves us above TC Premier SC STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar RGV STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold – Lonestar RGV STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.50 PPG	9th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 2
Win 1.83 PPG	6th▲ up 2	7th▲ up 1	8th— holds
Draw 1.50 PPG	9th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 2
Loss 1.33 PPG	10th▼ down 2	10th▼ down 2	11th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

2% top 4

98% below the top 4

8.4 average finish

1st <1%
2nd <1%
3rd <1%
4th 2%
5th 4%
6th 7%
7th 14%
8th 21%
9th 25%
10th 16%
11th 8%
12th 2%
13th <1%
14th <1%
15th
16th
17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Coastal Premier STXCL	3.00 (+1.40)	1st (2.61)	40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lonestar ATX STXCL White	3.00 (+1.40)	4th (2.17)	40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3	Challenge STXCL	2.50 (+0.90)	3rd (2.25)	32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I	2.29 (+0.69)	2nd (2.30)	29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5	Challenge Aggieland STXCL	2.00 (+0.40)	6th (1.86)	24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6	Dynamos STXCL	1.67 (+0.07)	5th (1.87)	A point next game
7	TC Premier SC STXCL	1.67 (+0.07)	7th (1.77)	A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold to Lonestar RGV STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

2 even

4 favour them

-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 11th hardest of 17

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Lonestar RGV STXCL 12th · 1-1-3 · GD -2	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.55	1.59	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM	Force FC STXCL 17th · 0-1-6 · GD -26	Away far trip Georgetown Soccer Association	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	2–0	2.58	1.73	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM	Houstonians FC STXCL 16th · 1-0-6 · GD -33	Away far trip Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.72	1.86	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM	Dynamos STXCL 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +21	Away far trip Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–2	0.75	1.73	Upside
Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM	Coastal Premier STXCL 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23	Home Westcreek	●●●●● Very tough	13%	0–2	0.59	1.62	Upside
Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM	Challenge STXCL 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +18	Home Westcreek	●●●●● Very tough	20%	0–1	0.83	1.55	Upside
Fri Apr 9 06:30 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +5	Home Town & Country	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.44	1.54	Upside
Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM	Challenge East STXCL 13th · 1-1-3 · GD -6	Away far trip Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	1–0	1.88	1.57	Swing game
Fri Apr 16 08:00 PM	Lonestar ATX STXCL White 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9	Home Town & Country	●●●●○ Tough	26%	0–1	1.07	1.53	Upside
Sat Apr 24 03:00 PM	FC Westlake STXCL 11th · 2-1-3 · GD -9	Away Hill Country Middle School	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	1–0	2.05	1.56	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy 10th · 3-1-3 · GD -1	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.54	1.56	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Coastal Premier STXCL

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.29

-0.02

100%

1.3

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Challenge East STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	7–0	100%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL White

3.00

WWWW

-0.25

+0.03

70%

3.9

W	Fri Sep 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Force FC STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0	94%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Fri Apr 16	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–0	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–0	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge STXCL

+18

2.50

WWWWL

-0.56

+0.24

86%

3.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSC STXCL NextUp · Sat Oct 31 vs Coastal Premier STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	5–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I

+14

2.29

WWWLW

+0.50

-0.49

90%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	11–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sun Nov 15 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	6–0	99%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–0	81%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge Aggieland STXCL

2.00

WWWLD

+0.24

-0.15

17%

6.0

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	4–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at PSC STXCL NextUp · Sat Nov 7 at Coastal Premier STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

+21

1.67

WWLWD

-0.71

+0.29

24%

5.7

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	9–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Challenge East STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	7–1	96%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

1.67

LLWWD

+0.88

-0.57

6.8

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Force FC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sat Nov 14 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	4–1	84%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

1.60

DDWLW

-0.09

-0.01

8.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Force FC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Houstonians FC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Fri Apr 9	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–0	54%
·	Fri Apr 16	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

1.50

LWWL

-0.24

+0.06

8.3

L	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0	68%
·	Fri Apr 9	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Hennessy

-1

1.43

DLWWW

-0.02

-0.01

9.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake STXCL

-9

1.17

WLLLD

-0.36

+0.32

13.1

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	0–7
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar RGV STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–1	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar RGV STXCL

-2

0.80

WLLDL

+0.40

-0.14

10.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–3	17%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	3–1	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge East STXCL

-6

0.80

LWDLL

-0.08

+0.15

12.9

L	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at PSC STXCL NextUp See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	0–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSC STXCL NextUp

-3

0.50

LLLLW

-0.06

+0.05

12.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	10–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Challenge East STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–4	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT STXCL

-24

0.50

LLLLW

+0.13

+0.17

15.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	3–11
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–2	67%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-33

0.43

LLLLL

-0.00

+0.38

16.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Challenge East STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	2–3	19%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force FC STXCL

-26

0.14

LLLLD

-0.21

+0.42

16.7

D	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at TC Premier SC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–3	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.