Challenge East STXCL
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU15 · 17 teams · Challenge SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.3 against · 0.38 expected points)
| Season so far | Challenge East STXCL | Dynamos STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 5.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D W L | D W L W W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL | 9–0 vs Houstonians FC STXCL |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Challenge STXCL | 2–4 vs TC Premier SC STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.73 | +1.91 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.08 | -0.77 |
Common opponents: TC Premier SC STXCL — we 0–2; they 2–4.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Dynamos STXCL score 5.0/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL, 0–2 at TC Premier SC STXCL, 0–3 at Challenge STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Lonestar RGV STXCL sit 12th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above Lonestar RGV STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Dynamos STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Challenge East STXCL – Dynamos STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.67 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 17th▼ down 4 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
12th▲ up 1 | 12th▲ up 1 | 13th— holds |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
12th▲ up 1 | 13th— holds | 16th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 17th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 2%
- 11th 8%
- 12th 18%
- 13th 26%
- 14th 37%
- 15th 6%
- 16th 1%
- 17th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coastal Premier STXCL | 3.00 (+2.20) | 1st (2.61) | 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 3.00 (+2.20) | 4th (2.18) | 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 3 | Challenge STXCL | 2.50 (+1.70) | 3rd (2.25) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 2.29 (+1.49) | 2nd (2.30) | 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 5 | Challenge Aggieland STXCL | 1.83 (+1.03) | 7th (1.76) | 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 6 | Dynamos STXCL | 1.67 (+0.87) | 5th (1.87) | 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 7 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 1.67 (+0.87) | 6th (1.77) | 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 8 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 1.60 (+0.80) | 9th (1.56) | 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 9 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 1.50 (+0.70) | 8th (1.57) | 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 10 | Sting CC STXCL Hennessy | 1.43 (+0.63) | 10th (1.37) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 11 | FC Westlake STXCL | 1.20 (+0.40) | 13th (0.97) | 16 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 12 | Lonestar RGV STXCL | 0.80 (+0.00) | 11th (1.22) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
10 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Challenge East STXCL to Dynamos STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.12 · 6th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Dynamos STXCL 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +21 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.73 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Houstonians FC STXCL 16th · 1-0-5 · GD -30 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.16 | 0.93 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
PSC STXCL NextUp 14th · 1-0-5 · GD -3 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.91 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Coastal Premier STXCL 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23 |
Home Lindsay/Lyons Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–2 | 0.23 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Force FC STXCL 17th · 0-0-6 · GD -26 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–0 | 2.26 | 0.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
FC Westlake STXCL 11th · 2-0-3 · GD -9 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 1.05 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 03:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX STXCL White 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Westcreek |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Westcreek |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–2 | 0.58 | 0.96 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 8th · 2-2-1 · GD +3 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
0–1 | 0.86 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 02:00 PM |
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I 4th · 5-1-1 · GD +14 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–2 | 0.30 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 PM |
Challenge Aggieland STXCL 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +6 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 0.90 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Coastal Premier STXCL | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | +23 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.33 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Challenge East STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.25 | -0.00 | 74% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Force FC STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Challenge STXCL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 2 | +18 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.60 | +0.23 | 85% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSC STXCL NextUp · Sat Oct 31 vs Coastal Premier STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWLW | +0.48 | -0.51 | 92% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sun Nov 15 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Challenge Aggieland STXCL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 11 | 1.83 | WWWLD | +0.24 | -0.17 | 9% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at PSC STXCL NextUp · Sat Nov 7 at Coastal Premier STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Dynamos STXCL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 9 | +21 | 10 | 1.67 | WWLWD | -0.77 | +0.29 | 26% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Challenge East STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWWD | +0.88 | -0.60 | 9% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Force FC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sat Nov 14 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 | 1.60 | DDWLW | -0.11 | -0.03 | 2% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Force FC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Houstonians FC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | -0.23 | +0.03 | 3% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sting CC STXCL Hennessy | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 | 1.43 | DLWWW | -0.07 | -0.01 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | FC Westlake STXCL | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 | 1.20 | WWLLL | +0.16 | +0.04 | 0% | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force FC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Lonestar RGV STXCL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLDL | +0.38 | -0.16 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Challenge East STXCL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | LWDLL | -0.08 | +0.12 | 0% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at PSC STXCL NextUp See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | PSC STXCL NextUp | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLW | -0.06 | +0.01 | 0% | 12.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Challenge East STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Lonestar SAT STXCL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLW | +0.07 | +0.17 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 34 | -30 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | -0.03 | +0.37 | 0% | 16.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Challenge East STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Force FC STXCL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 29 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.06 | +0.27 | 0% | 16.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at TC Premier SC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.