Challenge Aggieland STXCL

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU15 · 17 teams · Challenge SC (all teams)

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5th

3-2-1 record · 6 played

1.83 points per game

+6 goal diff · 15–9

WWWLDlast 5

9% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7

+0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Challenge Aggieland STXCL
5th · 1.83 PPG

Houstonians FC STXCL
16th · 0.50 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 2 ↗

96%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.5 for, 0.9 against · 2.91 expected points)

Season so far	Challenge Aggieland STXCL	Houstonians FC STXCL
Position	5th	16th
Record (W-D-L)	3-2-1	1-0-5
Points per game	1.83	0.50
Goals for / game	2.5	0.7
Goals against / game	1.5	5.7
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	1	4
Form (recent first)	D L W W W	L L L L L
Biggest win	5–0 at Lonestar SAT STXCL	3–0 vs Force FC STXCL
Worst loss	0–2 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I	0–10 vs PSC STXCL NextUp
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.67	-3.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.24	-0.03

Common opponents: Dynamos STXCL — we 3–3; they 0–9.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Houstonians FC STXCL average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 4 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Houstonians FC STXCL concede 5.7/game; worst result 0–10 vs PSC STXCL NextUp.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 5–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Houstonians FC STXCL have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Houstonians FC STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Challenge Aggieland STXCL – Houstonians FC STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.71 PPG	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1	8th▼ down 3
Loss 1.57 PPG	8th▼ down 3	9th▼ down 4	11th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–0 win we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

9% top 4

91% below the top 4

6.7 average finish

1st
2nd 1%
3rd 2%
4th 7%
5th 16%
6th 21%
7th 22%
8th 17%
9th 10%
10th 4%
11th 1%
12th <1%
13th <1%
14th
15th
16th
17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Coastal Premier STXCL	3.00 (+1.17)	1st (2.61)	37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lonestar ATX STXCL White	3.00 (+1.17)	4th (2.18)	37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3	Challenge STXCL	2.50 (+0.67)	3rd (2.25)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I	2.29 (+0.46)	2nd (2.30)	26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection

How the results connect

9 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Challenge Aggieland STXCL to Houstonians FC STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

0 favour them

+6.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 15th hardest of 17

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	Houstonians FC STXCL 16th · 1-0-5 · GD -30	Home Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	5–0	2.91	1.99	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM	PSC STXCL NextUp 14th · 1-0-5 · GD -3	Away Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–1	1.78	1.96	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	Coastal Premier STXCL 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23	Away Zube Park	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.41	1.79	Upside
Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM	TC Premier SC STXCL 7th · 3-1-2 · GD +2	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	1–1	1.61	1.77	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM	Force FC STXCL 17th · 0-0-6 · GD -26	Home Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.86	1.87	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 05:00 PM	FC Westlake STXCL 11th · 2-0-3 · GD -9	Away far trip Hill Country Middle School	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–1	2.21	1.90	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM	Lonestar ATX STXCL White 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9	Away far trip Westcreek	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.89	1.82	Upside
Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +5	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.56	1.80	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 02:00 PM	Challenge STXCL 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +18	Home Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.85	1.74	Upside
Sun Apr 25 12:00 PM	Challenge East STXCL 13th · 1-1-3 · GD -6	Away Dyess Park	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.05	1.76	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Coastal Premier STXCL

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.33

-0.04

100%

1.3

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Challenge East STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	7–0	100%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL White

3.00

WWWW

-0.25

-0.00

74%

3.7

W	Fri Sep 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Force FC STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Fri Apr 16	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–0	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–0	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge STXCL

+18

2.50

WWWWL

-0.60

+0.23

85%

3.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSC STXCL NextUp · Sat Oct 31 vs Coastal Premier STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	5–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I

+14

2.29

WWWLW

+0.48

-0.51

92%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	11–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sun Nov 15 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	6–0	99%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge Aggieland STXCL

1.83

WWWLD

+0.24

-0.17

6.7

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	4–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at PSC STXCL NextUp · Sat Nov 7 at Coastal Premier STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

+21

1.67

WWLWD

-0.77

+0.29

26%

5.5

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	9–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Challenge East STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	7–1	96%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

1.67

LLWWD

+0.88

-0.60

6.7

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Force FC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sat Nov 14 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	4–1	84%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

1.60

DDWLW

-0.11

-0.03

8.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Force FC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Houstonians FC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Fri Apr 9	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–0	54%
·	Fri Apr 16	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

1.50

LWWL

-0.23

+0.03

8.2

L	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0	68%
·	Fri Apr 9	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Hennessy

-1

1.43

DLWWW

-0.07

-0.01

9.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	4–0	89%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake STXCL

-9

1.20

WWLLL

+0.16

+0.04

12.7

L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	0–7
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force FC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–1	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar RGV STXCL

-2

0.80

WLLDL

+0.38

-0.16

10.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	3–1	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge East STXCL

-6

0.80

LWDLL

-0.08

+0.12

13.0

L	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at PSC STXCL NextUp See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSC STXCL NextUp

-3

0.50

LLLLW

-0.06

+0.01

12.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	10–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Challenge East STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–4	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT STXCL

-24

0.50

LLLLW

+0.07

+0.17

15.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	3–11
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	3–2	66%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-30

0.50

LLLLL

-0.03

+0.37

16.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Force FC STXCL (17th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Challenge East STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	2–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force FC STXCL

-26

0.00

LLLLL

-0.06

+0.27

16.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (15th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (10th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge STXCL (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Coastal Premier STXCL (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Dynamos STXCL (6th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (16th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at TC Premier SC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Westlake STXCL (11th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (7th)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge East STXCL (13th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (5th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	PSC STXCL NextUp (14th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (12th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.