Sporting California USA
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southern Cal GU14 · 13 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.5 against · 2.10 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting California USA | San Diego Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-1 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W | L L W D |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs LV Heat Surf | 5–1 at Legends FC |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Slammers FC HB Koge | 1–4 at Pateadores NB |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.14 | +0.14 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.14 | +0.72 |
Common opponents: Pateadores NB — we 2–1; they 1–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Slammers FC HB Koge.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 65% / draw 17% / loss 19%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Pateadores NB sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Pateadores NB on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the San Diego Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – San Diego Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 6%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 15%
- 4th 21%
- 5th 21%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 8%
- 8th 4%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues | 3.00 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.25) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 2 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.29) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 3 | Empire Surf | 2.25 (+0.25) | 3rd (1.98) | Win next game |
| 4 | Pateadores NB | 2.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.87) | A point next game |
How the results connect
5 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to San Diego Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.39 · 3rd hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
San Diego Surf 9th · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home San Bernardino Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.10 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 03:30 PM |
Legends FC - Del Mar 11th · 0-1-2 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.24 | 2.07 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
SLAMMERS FC 6th · 1-2-0 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Orange County Great Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.95 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 05:30 PM |
Rebels SC 10th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 04:30 PM |
LAFC 7th · 1-2-0 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Alemany High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club Black 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.23 | 1.90 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Empire Surf 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.50 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Legends FC 12th · 0-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.26 | 1.90 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Blues 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.34 | 1.85 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Blues | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.41 | +0.34 | 91% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.63 | +0.13 | 94% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Blues · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Empire Surf | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.75 | +0.38 | 72% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores NB See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pateadores NB | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -1.02 | +0.34 | 55% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Oct 31 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 at Empire Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting California USA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -1.14 | +0.39 | 52% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Nov 14 at SLAMMERS FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SLAMMERS FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 5 | 1.67 | DDW | -1.67 | +0.51 | 28% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores NB · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting California USA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | LAFC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | DDW | -1.50 | +0.62 | 2% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Blues · Sat Oct 31 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Nov 7 at Beach Futbol Club Black See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 | 1.25 | DLWD | +0.33 | +0.01 | 2% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores NB · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC - Del Mar See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | San Diego Surf | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 4 | 1.00 | DWLL | +0.72 | -0.21 | 4% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC · Sun Nov 22 vs LV Heat Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Rebels SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.57 | -0.08 | 0% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Diego Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.24 | +0.16 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Slammers FC HB Koge See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Legends FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.56 | +0.04 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Oct 31 at Empire Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LV Heat Surf | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 49 | -44 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.04 | -0.12 | 0% | 12.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sun Nov 22 at San Diego Surf · Sat Apr 10 vs Legends FC - Del Mar See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.