LV Heat Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southern Cal GU14 · 13 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 21, 05:00 PM
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–8 (expected goals 0.8 for, 8.9 against · 0.01 expected points)
| Season so far | LV Heat Surf | Beach Futbol Club Black |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-6 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 4.3 |
| Goals against / game | 8.2 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 6–0 at Rebels SC |
| Worst loss | 0–11 at Blues | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -4.41 | +1.80 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.04 | -0.63 |
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Beach Futbol Club Black score 4.3/game — well above the league's 2.3.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
Beach Futbol Club Black concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–9 at Sporting California USA, 0–7 vs Pateadores NB, 0–11 at Blues, 0–8 at SLAMMERS FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 0%; a draw (0%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
They arrive in form
Beach Futbol Club Black have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
-
Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Legends FC sit 12th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Legends FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Beach Futbol Club Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf – Beach Futbol Club Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 13th— holds |
| Win 0.43 PPG |
11th▲ up 2 | 11th▲ up 2 | 13th— holds |
| Draw 0.14 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 13th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 13th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–8 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th <1%
- 11th 1%
- 12th 4%
- 13th 96%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.25) | 36 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.29) | 36 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Empire Surf | 2.25 (+2.25) | 3rd (1.98) | 27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Pateadores NB | 2.00 (+2.00) | 4th (1.87) | 24 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Sporting California USA | 2.00 (+2.00) | 5th (1.85) | 24 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | SLAMMERS FC | 1.67 (+1.67) | 6th (1.64) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | LAFC | 1.67 (+1.67) | 8th (1.19) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 8 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 1.25 (+1.25) | 9th (1.18) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 9 | San Diego Surf | 1.00 (+1.00) | 7th (1.34) | 12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 10 | Rebels SC | 1.00 (+1.00) | 10th (1.03) | 12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 11 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 0.33 (+0.33) | 12th (0.78) | A point next game |
| 12 | Legends FC | 0.33 (+0.33) | 11th (0.81) | A point next game |
How the results connect
2 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf to Beach Futbol Club Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.12 · 12th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 21 05:00 PM |
Beach Futbol Club Black 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–8 | 0.01 | 0.00 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
San Diego Surf 9th · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–6 | 0.07 | 0.01 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Legends FC - Del Mar 11th · 0-1-2 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 0.06 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Slammers FC HB Koge 8th · 1-2-1 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Rebels SC 10th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.33 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Legends FC 12th · 0-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–4 | 0.41 | 0.14 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.41 | +0.34 | 91% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.63 | +0.13 | 94% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Blues · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Empire Surf | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.75 | +0.38 | 74% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores NB See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Pateadores NB | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -1.02 | +0.34 | 52% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Oct 31 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 at Empire Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Sporting California USA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -1.14 | +0.39 | 54% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Nov 14 at SLAMMERS FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | SLAMMERS FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 5 | 1.67 | DDW | -1.67 | +0.51 | 28% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores NB · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting California USA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | LAFC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | DDW | -1.50 | +0.62 | 2% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Blues · Sat Oct 31 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Nov 7 at Beach Futbol Club Black See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 | 1.25 | DLWD | +0.33 | +0.01 | 1% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores NB · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC - Del Mar See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | San Diego Surf | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 4 | 1.00 | DWLL | +0.72 | -0.21 | 4% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC · Sun Nov 22 vs LV Heat Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Rebels SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.57 | -0.08 | 0% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Diego Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.24 | +0.16 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Slammers FC HB Koge See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Legends FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.56 | +0.04 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Oct 31 at Empire Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | LV Heat Surf | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 49 | -44 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.04 | -0.12 | 0% | 12.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sun Nov 22 at San Diego Surf · Sat Apr 10 vs Legends FC - Del Mar See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.