San Diego Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southern Cal GU14 · 13 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 53 minutes ago.

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9th

1-1-2 record · 4 played

1.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 9–9

DWLLlast 4

4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.5

+0.72 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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San Diego Surf
9th · 1.00 PPG

Sporting California USA
5th · 2.00 PPG

San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

19% 17% 65%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.8 against · 0.73 expected points)

Season so far	San Diego Surf	Sporting California USA
Position	9th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-2	2-0-1
Points per game	1.00	2.00
Goals for / game	2.3	3.7
Goals against / game	2.3	0.7
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	L L W D	L W W
Biggest win	5–1 at Legends FC	9–0 vs LV Heat Surf
Worst loss	1–4 at Pateadores NB	0–1 vs Slammers FC HB Koge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.14	+1.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.72	-1.14

Common opponents: Pateadores NB — we 1–4; they 2–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Sporting California USA score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.3.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Sporting California USA concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at San Bernardino Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Slammers FC HB Koge sit 8th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.00.
A point moves us above Slammers FC HB Koge on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.80 PPG	10th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 1	12th▼ down 3
Win 1.40 PPG	8th▲ up 1	7th▲ up 2	9th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	9th— holds	8th▲ up 1	10th▼ down 1
Loss 0.80 PPG	10th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 1	12th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

4% top 4

96% below the top 4

7.5 average finish

1st <1%
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 3%
5th 7%
6th 16%
7th 25%
8th 22%
9th 13%
10th 8%
11th 4%
12th 1%
13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Blues	3.00 (+2.00)	2nd (2.25)	32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
2	Beach Futbol Club Black	3.00 (+2.00)	1st (2.29)	32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3	Empire Surf	2.25 (+1.25)	3rd (1.98)	23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4	Pateadores NB	2.00 (+1.00)	4th (1.87)	20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
5	Sporting California USA	2.00 (+1.00)	5th (1.85)	20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
6	SLAMMERS FC	1.67 (+0.67)	6th (1.64)	17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
7	LAFC	1.67 (+0.67)	8th (1.19)	17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
8	Slammers FC HB Koge	1.25 (+0.25)	9th (1.18)	A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

4 favour them

-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.21 · 13th hardest of 13

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	Sporting California USA 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +9	Away far trip San Bernardino Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–2	0.73	0.95	Upside
Sat Nov 7 08:30 AM	Rebels SC 10th · 1-1-2 · GD -6	Away far trip Southwestern College · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–2	1.70	1.07	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM	LV Heat Surf 13th · 0-0-6 · GD -44	Home Surf Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	6–1	2.90	1.33	Bank it
Sun Dec 13 01:00 PM	LAFC 7th · 1-2-0 · GD +1	Home Surf Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–2	1.74	1.38	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM	Slammers FC HB Koge 8th · 1-2-1 · GD -3	Home Surf Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–1	1.81	1.43	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Legends FC - Del Mar 11th · 0-1-2 · GD -5	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–1	1.78	1.47	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM	Beach Futbol Club Black 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +12	Home Surf Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.70	1.40	Upside
Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM	Blues 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +13	Home Surf Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	20%	1–3	0.77	1.34	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Blues

+13

3.00

WWW

-1.41

+0.34

91%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	LV Heat Surf (13th)	11–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Rebels SC (10th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LAFC (7th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Legends FC (12th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Pateadores NB (4th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	2–1	77%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	San Diego Surf (9th)	3–1	64%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sporting California USA (5th)	2–2	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach Futbol Club Black

+12

3.00

WWW

-0.63

+0.13

94%

2.1

W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Legends FC (12th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Rebels SC (10th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Blues · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Blues (1st)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	LAFC (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	LV Heat Surf (13th)	8–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sporting California USA (5th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	San Diego Surf (9th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat May 1	at	Pateadores NB (4th)	2–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Empire Surf

+12

2.25

WLWW

-0.75

+0.38

74%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	San Diego Surf (9th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Blues (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	LV Heat Surf (13th)	9–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores NB See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Legends FC (12th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Pateadores NB (4th)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sporting California USA (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat May 1	vs	LAFC (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat May 8	at	Rebels SC (10th)	3–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pateadores NB

2.00

LWW

-1.02

+0.34

52%

4.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Diego Surf (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	LV Heat Surf (13th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sporting California USA (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Oct 31 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 at Empire Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Blues (1st)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Legends FC (12th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Rebels SC (10th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	1–2	34%
·	Sat May 8	at	LAFC (7th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting California USA

2.00

WWL

-1.14

+0.39

54%

4.4

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pateadores NB (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	LV Heat Surf (13th)	9–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Nov 14 at SLAMMERS FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Diego Surf (9th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Rebels SC (10th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	LAFC (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Legends FC (12th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Blues (1st)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SLAMMERS FC

1.67

DDW

-1.67

+0.51

28%

5.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	LV Heat Surf (13th)	8–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	LAFC (7th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	San Diego Surf (9th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores NB · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting California USA See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Rebels SC (10th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Pateadores NB (4th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting California USA (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Legends FC (12th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Blues (1st)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–2	40%
·	Sat May 1	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat May 8	at	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	1–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LAFC

1.67

DDW

-1.50

+0.62

8.6

W	Sat Oct 3	at	LV Heat Surf (13th)	5–4
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Blues · Sat Oct 31 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Nov 7 at Beach Futbol Club Black See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Blues (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	San Diego Surf (9th)	2–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Sporting California USA (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Rebels SC (10th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Legends FC (12th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat May 1	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Pateadores NB (4th)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Slammers FC HB Koge

-3

1.25

DLWD

+0.33

+0.01

8.5

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Rebels SC (10th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sporting California USA (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Legends FC (12th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores NB · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC - Del Mar See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Pateadores NB (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	LAFC (7th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Diego Surf (9th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Blues (1st)	1–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	LV Heat Surf (13th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat May 8	vs	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	1–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Diego Surf

1.00

DWLL

+0.72

-0.21

7.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Pateadores NB (4th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Legends FC (12th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC · Sun Nov 22 vs LV Heat Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting California USA (5th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Rebels SC (10th)	2–2	51%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	LV Heat Surf (13th)	6–1	96%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	LAFC (7th)	2–2	52%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Blues (1st)	1–3	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rebels SC

-6

1.00

LWLD

+0.57

-0.08

9.6

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Blues (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Diego Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Legends FC (12th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Diego Surf (9th)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sporting California USA (5th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	LAFC (7th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Pateadores NB (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat May 1	at	LV Heat Surf (13th)	4–1	83%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC - Del Mar

-5

0.33

DLL

+0.24

+0.16

10.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Rebels SC (10th)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	LAFC (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Slammers FC HB Koge See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Legends FC (12th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sporting California USA (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Blues (1st)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	LV Heat Surf (13th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Diego Surf (9th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pateadores NB (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC

-6

0.33

DLL

+0.56

+0.04

10.7

L	Sat Sep 26	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Diego Surf (9th)	1–5
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Oct 31 at Empire Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Rebels SC (10th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Blues (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Pateadores NB (4th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	LAFC (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Sporting California USA (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 8	at	LV Heat Surf (13th)	4–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LV Heat Surf

-44

0.00

LLLLL

+1.04

-0.12

12.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SLAMMERS FC (6th)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Blues (1st)	0–11
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	LAFC (7th)	4–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pateadores NB (4th)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Sporting California USA (5th)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–9

Next: Sat Nov 21 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sun Nov 22 at San Diego Surf · Sat Apr 10 vs Legends FC - Del Mar See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (2nd)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	San Diego Surf (9th)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (11th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Slammers FC HB Koge (8th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Rebels SC (10th)	1–4	8%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Legends FC (12th)	1–4	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.