TableChase Clubs

Real Colorado Olympico

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU17 · 19 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)

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1st
8-3-2 record · 13 played
2.08 points per game
+3 goal diff · 22–19
WDDWWlast 5
75% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
-0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:30 AM

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Real Colorado Olympico
1st · 2.08 PPG
at
Colorado Storm South
2nd · 1.83 PPG

Gates South Soccer Complex, 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.4 against · 0.78 expected points)

Season so farReal Colorado OlympicoColorado Storm South
Position1st2nd
Record (W-D-L)8-3-27-1-4
Points per game2.081.83
Goals for / game1.73.1
Goals against / game1.51.4
Clean sheets43
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)W W D D WL W W W W
Biggest win2–0 vs Colorado Storm South7–0 vs Colorado Storm Central
Worst loss0–7 at Arsenal Colorado0–2 at Real Colorado Olympico
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.27+1.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.03-0.05

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 2–0 vs Colorado Storm South (W)

Common opponents: Arsenal Colorado — we 0–7, 0–3; they 2–3, 2–1. Pride SC — we 1–1, 3–1; they 2–1. Colorado EDGE — we 3–1; they 0–2, 6–0. Colorado Rush — we 1–0, 0–0; they 5–3. Colorado Storm Central — we 2–1; they 7–0. Colorado Storm North — we 3–2, 2–2; they 1–1, 1–3. CCV STARS — we 2–0; they 7–1. Arizona Soccer Club — we 3–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Colorado Storm South score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–7 at Arsenal Colorado, 0–3 vs Arsenal Colorado, 0–0 vs Colorado Rush.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 20%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:30 AM at Gates South Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm South game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado Olympico – Colorado Storm South) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.93 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.14 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
1.93 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

20% finish 1st
75% top 4
25% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st 20%
  2. 2nd 20%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

129 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Real Colorado Olympico to Colorado Storm South through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

42 favour us
11 even
76 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 2–2 1–1 3–2 3–1 1–2 1–0 3–5 1–1 3–1 0–4 0–0 3–1 0–3 3–2 2–0 1–7 Real Colorado Olymp… 1st Colorado Storm North 6th Pride SC 5th Colorado Rush 7th Arizona Soccer Club 19th Arsenal Colorado 4th CCV STARS 9th Colorado Storm South 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 10th 19th Aug 27 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 9th hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:30 AM
Colorado Storm South
2nd · 7-1-4 · GD +20
Away
Gates South Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.78 1.98 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:15 AM
Colorado EDGE
3rd · 6-2-3 · GD +1
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.60 1.96 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:15 AM
Colorado Storm Central
8th · 1-1-8 · GD -21
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.38 1.98 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
11:15 AM
La Roca FC North
14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.70 1.97 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
11:15 AM
Utah Surf
18th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.70 1.95 Swing game
Sun Jan 24
02:00 PM
La Roca FC South
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
Lakeside Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 1.93 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Real Colorado Olympico 13832 2219+3 272.08 WDDWW -0.03 +0.02 75% 3.3
2 Colorado Storm South 12714 3717+20 221.83 WWWWL -0.05 -0.11 82% 2.8
3 Colorado EDGE 11623 2221+1 201.82 LWLDW +0.38 +0.01 21% 7.3
4 Arsenal Colorado 11533 3517+18 181.64 DLDLW +0.05 +0.13 49% 5.0
5 Pride SC 9423 2010+10 141.56 LWWLD -0.11 +0.10 24% 7.0
6 Colorado Storm North 11353 1514+1 141.27 DLDDW +0.37 +0.06 2% 11.1
7 Colorado Rush 11425 2026-6 141.27 LLDWD -0.16 +0.38 0% 13.9
8 Colorado Storm Central 10118 829-21 40.40 WLLLL +0.46 +0.32 0% 18.2
9 CCV STARS 4013 216-14 10.25 LLLD +0.46 -0.30 0% 17.8
10 Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.19 ——
11 Boise Thorns 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.17 ——
12 El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.48 ——
13 Idaho Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.17 ——
14 La Roca FC North 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.12 ——
15 La Roca FC South 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.12 ——
16 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.48 ——
17 NUU Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.17 ——
18 Utah Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.11 ——
19 Arizona Soccer Club 4004 315-12 00.00 LLLL +0.46 -0.35 0% 17.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.