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NM Rapids SC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU17 · 19 teams · NM Rapids SC (all teams)

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16th
0-0-0 record · 0 played
0.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 0–0
last 0
33% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 21, 01:00 PM

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NM Rapids SC
16th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Colorado EDGE
3rd · 1.82 PPG

Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex, Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.9 against · 1.43 expected points)

Season so farNM Rapids SCColorado EDGE
Position16th3rd
Record (W-D-L)0-0-06-2-3
Points per game0.001.82
Goals for / game0.02.0
Goals against / game0.01.9
Clean sheets04
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)—W D L W L
Biggest win—3–0 at Colorado Storm Central
Worst loss—0–6 vs Colorado Storm South
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.00+0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00+0.38

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 41%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    La Roca FC South sit 15th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above La Roca FC South on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado EDGE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NM Rapids SC – Colorado EDGE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
8th▲ up 8 11th▲ up 5 13th▲ up 3
Win
3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 15 1st▲ up 15 5th▲ up 11
Draw
1.00 PPG
8th▲ up 8 12th▲ up 4 13th▲ up 3
Loss
0.00 PPG
18th▼ down 2 18th▼ down 2 18th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

11% finish 1st
33% top 4
68% below the top 4
7.3 average finish
  1. 1st 11%
  2. 2nd 7%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 6%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 5%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 3%
  16. 16th 3%
  17. 17th 1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Real Colorado Olympico 2.08 (+2.08) 2nd (1.93) A point next game
2 Colorado Storm South 1.83 (+1.83) 1st (1.96) A point next game
3 Colorado EDGE 1.82 (+1.82) 7th (1.64) A point next game
4 Arsenal Colorado 1.64 (+1.64) 3rd (1.78) A point next game
5 Pride SC 1.56 (+1.56) 4th (1.66) A point next game
6 Colorado Storm North 1.27 (+1.27) 12th (1.38) A point next game
7 Colorado Rush 1.27 (+1.27) 16th (1.16) A point next game
8 Colorado Storm Central 0.40 (+0.40) 19th (0.47) Already ahead
9 CCV STARS 0.25 (+0.25) 18th (0.54) Already ahead
10 Avalanche 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.49) Already ahead
11 Boise Thorns 0.00 (+0.00) 8th (1.50) Already ahead
12 El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 0.00 (+0.00) 5th (1.65) Already ahead
13 Idaho Rush 0.00 (+0.00) 9th (1.50) Already ahead
14 La Roca FC North 0.00 (+0.00) 14th (1.34) Already ahead
15 La Roca FC South 0.00 (+0.00) 15th (1.32) Already ahead

Position over the season

17 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.48 · 19th hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
Colorado EDGE
3rd · 6-2-3 · GD +1
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.43 1.43 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:00 PM
Arsenal Colorado
4th · 5-3-3 · GD +18
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.86 1.15 Upside
Sat Dec 12
01:30 PM
Colorado Storm Central
8th · 1-1-8 · GD -21
Away far trip
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 1.47 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
01:00 PM
Colorado Storm North
6th · 3-5-3 · GD +1
Away far trip
Stargate Charter School
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.12 1.38 Upside
Sat Mar 6
01:00 PM
El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10
12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
University Field
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.25 1.35 Upside
Sat Mar 13
01:00 PM
La Roca FC South
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.54 1.39 Swing game
Sat Mar 27
01:00 PM
El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10
12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.54 1.41 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
01:00 PM
CCV STARS
9th · 0-1-3 · GD -14
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 1.54 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
01:00 PM
Arizona Soccer Club
19th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.35 1.63 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Utah Surf
18th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.25 1.59 Upside
Sun Apr 11
01:00 PM
La Roca FC North
14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
La Roca FC Utah County Complex
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.25 1.56 Upside
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
CCV STARS
9th · 0-1-3 · GD -14
Away far trip
West Valley Events Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.24 1.62 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM
Arizona Soccer Club
19th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Away far trip
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.11 1.65 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Real Colorado Olympico 13832 2219+3 272.08 WDDWW -0.03 +0.02 75% 3.3
2 Colorado Storm South 12714 3717+20 221.83 WWWWL -0.05 -0.11 82% 2.9
3 Colorado EDGE 11623 2221+1 201.82 LWLDW +0.38 +0.01 21% 7.3
4 Arsenal Colorado 11533 3517+18 181.64 DLDLW +0.05 +0.13 48% 5.1
5 Pride SC 9423 2010+10 141.56 LWWLD -0.11 +0.10 26% 6.8
6 Colorado Storm North 11353 1514+1 141.27 DLDDW +0.37 +0.06 3% 11.0
7 Colorado Rush 11425 2026-6 141.27 LLDWD -0.16 +0.38 0% 13.8
8 Colorado Storm Central 10118 829-21 40.40 WLLLL +0.46 +0.32 0% 18.2
9 CCV STARS 4013 216-14 10.25 LLLD +0.46 -0.30 0% 17.8
10 Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.19 ——
11 Boise Thorns 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.17 ——
12 El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.48 ——
13 Idaho Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.17 ——
14 La Roca FC North 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.12 ——
15 La Roca FC South 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.12 ——
16 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.48 ——
17 NUU Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.17 ——
18 Utah Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.11 ——
19 Arizona Soccer Club 4004 315-12 00.00 LLLL +0.46 -0.35 0% 17.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.