Arsenal Colorado

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU17 · 19 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)

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4th

5-3-3 record · 11 played

1.64 points per game

+18 goal diff · 35–17

DLDLWlast 5

48% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.1

+0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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Arsenal Colorado
4th · 1.64 PPG

Pride SC
5th · 1.56 PPG

Fort Collins Soccer Complex, FCSC #7 ↗

50% 20% 30%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.7 against · 1.70 expected points)

Season so far	Arsenal Colorado	Pride SC
Position	4th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	5-3-3	4-2-3
Points per game	1.64	1.56
Goals for / game	3.2	2.2
Goals against / game	1.5	1.1
Clean sheets	2	3
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W L D L D	D L W W L
Biggest win	7–0 vs Real Colorado Olympico	6–0 vs CCV STARS
Worst loss	2–4 at Colorado EDGE	1–3 vs Real Colorado Olympico
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.32	+0.77
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.05	-0.11

Common opponents: Real Colorado Olympico — we 7–0, 3–0; they 1–1, 1–3. Colorado Storm South — we 3–2, 1–2; they 1–2. Colorado EDGE — we 2–4, 2–3; they 4–2, 1–1. Colorado Rush — we 5–1; they 3–0. Colorado Storm North — we 1–1, 2–2; they 0–1.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 50% / draw 20% / loss 30%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pride SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado – Pride SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.75 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Win 1.75 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Draw 1.58 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Loss 1.50 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

8% finish 1st

48% top 4

52% below the top 4

5.1 average finish

1st 8%
2nd 12%
3rd 13%
4th 14%
5th 14%
6th 10%
7th 9%
8th 7%
9th 5%
10th 3%
11th 2%
12th 2%
13th 1%
14th <1%
15th <1%
16th
17th
18th
19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Real Colorado Olympico	2.08 (+0.44)	2nd (1.93)	24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
2	Colorado Storm South	1.83 (+0.19)	1st (1.96)	19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
3	Colorado EDGE	1.82 (+0.18)	7th (1.64)	19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection

How the results connect

115 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Arsenal Colorado to Pride SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

63 favour us

13 even

39 favour them

+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.13 · 3rd hardest of 19

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM	Pride SC 5th · 4-2-3 · GD +10	Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.70	1.64	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	Colorado Rush 7th · 4-2-5 · GD -6	Away far trip Bear Creek High School · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	3–1	2.20	1.68	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	Pride SC 5th · 4-2-3 · GD +10	Away far trip Pride Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.41	1.66	Upside
Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM	Avalanche 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.96	1.68	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 TBD	NUU Avalanche 17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.96	1.70	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip University Field	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.96	1.72	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM	NM Rapids SC 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.96	1.73	Swing game
Sat Jan 23 TBD	Idaho Rush 13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	3–1	2.24	1.76	Swing game
Sun Jan 24 TBD	Boise Thorns 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	3–1	2.24	1.78	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Real Colorado Olympico

2.08

WDDWW

-0.03

+0.02

76%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	CCV STARS (9th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	0–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Pride SC (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	2–0
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pride SC (5th)	1–1
L	Thu Aug 27	at	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Colorado Storm South · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	La Roca FC North (14th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Utah Surf (18th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	La Roca FC South (15th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm South

+20

1.83

WWWWL

-0.05

-0.11

83%

2.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Pride SC (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	5–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	CCV STARS (9th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 5	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Nov 7 at Colorado Storm Central See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Pride SC (5th)	2–1	51%
·	Fri Jan 22	at	La Roca FC North (14th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Utah Surf (18th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	La Roca FC South (15th)	3–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado EDGE

1.82

LWLDW

+0.38

+0.01

20%

7.3

W	Wed Oct 21	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pride SC (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	0–6
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Pride SC (5th)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	4–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	5–3
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Oct 31 at Real Colorado Olympico · Sun Nov 1 at Colorado Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Avalanche (10th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	NM Rapids SC (16th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Boise Thorns (11th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Idaho Rush (13th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arsenal Colorado

+18

1.64

DLDLW

+0.05

+0.13

48%

5.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	8–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	2–4
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	3–2
W	Thu Aug 27	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pride SC · Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Pride SC (5th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pride SC (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Avalanche (10th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	NUU Avalanche (17th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	NM Rapids SC (16th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Idaho Rush (13th)	3–1	70%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Boise Thorns (11th)	3–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pride SC

+10

1.56

LWWLD

-0.11

+0.10

24%

7.0

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	CCV STARS (9th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	0–1
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arsenal Colorado · Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	La Roca FC North (14th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Utah Surf (18th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	La Roca FC South (15th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm North

1.27

DLDDW

+0.37

+0.06

11.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	3–1
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Pride SC (5th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Oct 25 vs Pride SC · Sat Nov 7 at Colorado Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Pride SC (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Avalanche (10th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	NM Rapids SC (16th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush

-6

1.27

LLDWD

-0.16

+0.38

13.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	CCV STARS (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	5–2
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Pride SC (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	3–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	3–5
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Oct 31 at Colorado Storm South · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado EDGE See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Pride SC (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	La Roca FC South (15th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Utah Surf (18th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	La Roca FC North (14th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Avalanche (10th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Central

-21

0.40

WLLLL

+0.46

+0.32

18.2

L	Wed Oct 21	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–8
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Pride SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Colorado Storm South · Sun Nov 8 at Real Colorado Olympico See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Pride SC (5th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NM Rapids SC (16th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Pride SC (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CCV STARS

-14

0.25

LLLD

+0.46

-0.30

17.8

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Pride SC (5th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Arizona Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 at Boise Thorns See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	NM Rapids SC (16th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NM Rapids SC (16th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Avalanche

0.00

—

-0.19

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado EDGE · Sat Nov 14 vs Idaho Rush See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Idaho Rush (13th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Boise Thorns (11th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	La Roca FC South (15th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Utah Surf (18th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	La Roca FC South (15th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	CCV STARS (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	La Roca FC North (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	La Roca FC North (14th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 1	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun May 2	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	Utah Surf (18th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun May 16	at	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boise Thorns

0.00

—

-0.17

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 14 at La Roca FC North · Sun Nov 15 at Avalanche · Sat Jan 23 at Colorado EDGE See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	La Roca FC North (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	CCV STARS (9th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Idaho Rush (13th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	La Roca FC South (15th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Utah Surf (18th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Utah Surf (18th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Avalanche (10th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC South (15th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun May 9	vs	La Roca FC North (14th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10

0.00

—

-0.48

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado EDGE · Sat Dec 12 at Colorado Storm North See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NM Rapids SC (16th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	La Roca FC South (15th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	NM Rapids SC (16th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	CCV STARS (9th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	La Roca FC North (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Utah Surf (18th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	CCV STARS (9th)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Idaho Rush

0.00

—

-0.17

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Avalanche · Sun Nov 15 at La Roca FC North · Sat Jan 23 at Arsenal Colorado See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	La Roca FC North (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Boise Thorns (11th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	CCV STARS (9th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Utah Surf (18th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	La Roca FC South (15th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Avalanche (10th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Utah Surf (18th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC North (14th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun May 9	vs	La Roca FC South (15th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC North

0.00

—

+0.12

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Boise Thorns · Sun Nov 15 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Nov 21 at Real Colorado Olympico See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Boise Thorns (11th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Idaho Rush (13th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Fri Jan 22	vs	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Pride SC (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Utah Surf (18th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NM Rapids SC (16th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Avalanche (10th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Utah Surf (18th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun May 9	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	at	La Roca FC South (15th)	1–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC South

0.00

—

+0.12

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Surf · Sat Dec 5 at Utah Surf · Sun Dec 6 vs Avalanche See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Surf (18th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Utah Surf (18th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Avalanche (10th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Pride SC (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NM Rapids SC (16th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Boise Thorns (11th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Idaho Rush (13th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 8	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun May 9	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	vs	La Roca FC North (14th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NM Rapids SC

0.00

—

-0.48

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Dec 12 at Colorado Storm Central See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	La Roca FC South (15th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	CCV STARS (9th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Utah Surf (18th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	La Roca FC North (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	CCV STARS (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NUU Avalanche

0.00

—

-0.17

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 8 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Nov 21 at Colorado Storm Central See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Colorado EDGE (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Arsenal Colorado (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Colorado Storm North (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Utah Surf (18th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	La Roca FC South (15th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	La Roca FC North (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	La Roca FC South (15th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	CCV STARS (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Arizona Soccer Club (19th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Boise Thorns (11th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Idaho Rush (13th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 1	vs	La Roca FC North (14th)	2–1	44%
·	Thu May 6	vs	Utah Surf (18th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Avalanche (10th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Surf

0.00

—

+0.11

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC South · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Dec 5 vs La Roca FC South See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	La Roca FC South (15th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	La Roca FC South (15th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Pride SC (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	La Roca FC North (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	NM Rapids SC (16th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Idaho Rush (13th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Boise Thorns (11th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	La Roca FC North (14th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 1	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–2	35%
·	Thu May 6	at	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Avalanche (10th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arizona Soccer Club

-12

0.00

LLLL

+0.46

-0.35

17.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Colorado Rush (7th)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Pride SC (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Colorado Storm South (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Sat Nov 7 vs CCV STARS · Sat Mar 13 at Idaho Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CCV STARS (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CCV STARS (9th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Idaho Rush (13th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Boise Thorns (11th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	NM Rapids SC (16th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Avalanche (10th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NUU Avalanche (17th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G09/10 (12th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	NM Rapids SC (16th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.