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Albion Hurricanes FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Texas BU13 · 16 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

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12th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
-9 goal diff · 5–14
LWLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.2
+0.71 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Albion Hurricanes FC
12th · 0.75 PPG
at
SOLAR SC
8th · 1.57 PPG

Liberty High School , Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.2 for, 4.1 against · 0.25 expected points)

Season so farAlbion Hurricanes FCSOLAR SC
Position12th8th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-33-2-2
Points per game0.751.57
Goals for / game1.33.1
Goals against / game3.51.1
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L L W LD W W D W
Biggest win3–2 vs FC Dallas Youth9–0 vs San Antonio City SC
Worst loss1–8 vs Dallas Texans0–3 at HTX S
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.11+1.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.71-0.51

Common opponents: Lonestar ATX White — we 0–1; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    SOLAR SC score 3.1/game — well above the league's 2.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Lonestar ATX White.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 6%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Liberty High School .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Albion Hurricanes FC – SOLAR SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.60 PPG
12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 3
Win
1.20 PPG
12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 12th— holds
Draw
0.80 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 15th▼ down 3
Loss
0.60 PPG
12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 20%
  12. 12th 38%
  13. 13th 28%
  14. 14th 7%
  15. 15th 3%
  16. 16th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Houstonians FC 3.00 (+2.25) 2nd (2.27) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Dallas Texans 2.71 (+1.96) 1st (2.62) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 HTX S 2.29 (+1.54) 3rd (2.09) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 FC Dallas Youth 2.14 (+1.39) 6th (1.78) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5 CHALLENGE UNITED 2.00 (+1.25) 4th (1.85) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 FC Westlake 2.00 (+1.25) 5th (1.79) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 RISE SC 1.75 (+1.00) 9th (1.56) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 SOLAR SC 1.57 (+0.82) 7th (1.77) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
9 SAFC 1.43 (+0.68) 8th (1.62) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
10 Sting 1.40 (+0.65) 11th (1.11) 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
11 HTX N 1.29 (+0.54) 10th (1.51) 17 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Albion Hurricanes FC to SOLAR SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
6 favour them
-2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 0–1 0–1 3–0 1–3 2–1 1–8 5–0 1–1 3–2 2–1 4–0 0–9 0–4 1–0 7–0 Albion Hurricanes FC 12th Lonestar ATX White 13th RISE SC 7th Dallas Texans 2nd FC Dallas Youth 4th HTX S 3rd SAFC 9th San Antonio City SC 16th Houstonians FC 1st SOLAR SC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 10th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
11:00 AM
no score posted
Nido Dallas
15th · 0-0-5 · GD -20
Away far trip
Saginaw High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.88 0.98 Swing game
Sun Oct 4
11:00 AM
no score posted
DKSC
14th · 0-1-5 · GD -25
Away far trip
Coppell Middle School North
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.92 1.13 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
SOLAR SC
8th · 3-2-2 · GD +14
Away far trip
Liberty High School
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.25 1.01 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Sting
10th · 2-1-2 · GD -1
Away far trip
Wakeland High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–1 1.00 1.01 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:00 AM
SAFC
9th · 3-1-3 · GD -3
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 1.01 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
San Antonio City SC
16th · 0-0-7 · GD -35
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.54 1.16 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
TBD
Houstonians FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +11
Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 1.09 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
HTX S
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +13
Away
Blue Ridge Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.27 1.02 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
FC Westlake
6th · 2-2-0 · GD +5
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.65 0.99 Upside
Sat May 1
01:00 PM
HTX N
11th · 3-0-4 · GD +9
Away far trip
Bear Branch Sportsfields
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–4 0.39 0.95 Upside
Fri May 7
09:00 AM
CHALLENGE UNITED
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +11
Away far trip
Burroughs Park
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.31 0.91 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Houstonians FC 5500 143+11 153.00 WWWWW -0.77 +0.19 90% 2.6
2 Dallas Texans 7610 385+33 192.71 WWWWW -0.26 -0.18 100% 1.2
3 HTX S 7511 185+13 162.29 DLWWW -0.44 +0.13 76% 3.6
4 FC Dallas Youth 7502 139+4 152.14 WLWWW -0.31 +0.21 23% 6.3
5 CHALLENGE UNITED 6402 2514+11 122.00 WWWLL -0.42 +0.23 39% 5.5
6 FC Westlake 4220 94+5 82.00 DWWD -0.19 -0.01 28% 6.1
7 RISE SC 4211 76+1 71.75 WDLW +0.36 -0.18 7% 8.1
8 SOLAR SC 7322 228+14 111.57 WDWWD -0.51 +0.22 25% 6.0
9 SAFC 7313 1013-3 101.43 WDWLL +1.07 -0.95 6% 7.8
10 Sting 5212 45-1 71.40 LWDLW -1.08 +0.57 0% 11.1
11 HTX N 7304 2314+9 91.29 WWLLL -0.29 +0.25 6% 8.2
12 Albion Hurricanes FC 4103 514-9 30.75 LWLL +0.71 -0.18 0% 12.2
13 Lonestar ATX White 6105 210-8 30.50 WLLLL +0.41 -0.21 0% 12.8
14 DKSC 6015 530-25 10.17 LDLLL +0.86 -0.33 0% 14.3
15 Nido Dallas 5005 323-20 00.00 LLLLL +0.92 -0.26 0% 14.5
16 San Antonio City SC 7007 237-35 00.00 LLLLL +0.99 -0.50 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.01 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.