Albion Hurricanes FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Texas BU13 · 16 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Liberty High School , Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.2 for, 4.1 against · 0.25 expected points)
| Season so far | Albion Hurricanes FC | SOLAR SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 3-2-2 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.57 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 3.5 | 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L | D W W D W |
| Biggest win | 3–2 vs FC Dallas Youth | 9–0 vs San Antonio City SC |
| Worst loss | 1–8 vs Dallas Texans | 0–3 at HTX S |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.11 | +1.27 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.71 | -0.51 |
Common opponents: Lonestar ATX White — we 0–1; they 1–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
SOLAR SC score 3.1/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Lonestar ATX White.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Liberty High School .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SOLAR SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Albion Hurricanes FC – SOLAR SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.60 PPG |
12th— holds | 13th▼ down 1 | 15th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
12th— holds | 11th▲ up 1 | 12th— holds |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 15th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
12th— holds | 13th▼ down 1 | 15th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 3%
- 11th 20%
- 12th 38%
- 13th 28%
- 14th 7%
- 15th 3%
- 16th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houstonians FC | 3.00 (+2.25) | 2nd (2.27) | 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 2 | Dallas Texans | 2.71 (+1.96) | 1st (2.62) | 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | HTX S | 2.29 (+1.54) | 3rd (2.09) | 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Dallas Youth | 2.14 (+1.39) | 6th (1.78) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 5 | CHALLENGE UNITED | 2.00 (+1.25) | 4th (1.85) | 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 6 | FC Westlake | 2.00 (+1.25) | 5th (1.79) | 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 7 | RISE SC | 1.75 (+1.00) | 9th (1.56) | 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 8 | SOLAR SC | 1.57 (+0.82) | 7th (1.77) | 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 9 | SAFC | 1.43 (+0.68) | 8th (1.62) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 10 | Sting | 1.40 (+0.65) | 11th (1.11) | 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 11 | HTX N | 1.29 (+0.54) | 10th (1.51) | 17 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
How the results connect
8 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Albion Hurricanes FC to SOLAR SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.18 · 10th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 3 11:00 AM no score posted |
Nido Dallas 15th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Saginaw High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 0.98 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 4 11:00 AM no score posted |
DKSC 14th · 0-1-5 · GD -25 |
Away far trip
Coppell Middle School North |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.13 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
SOLAR SC 8th · 3-2-2 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.25 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Sting 10th · 2-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Wakeland High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
SAFC 9th · 3-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home Campbell Road Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.00 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
San Antonio City SC 16th · 0-0-7 · GD -35 |
Home Campbell Road Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.54 | 1.16 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
Houstonians FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.42 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
HTX S 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +13 |
Away Blue Ridge Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.27 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
FC Westlake 6th · 2-2-0 · GD +5 |
Home Campbell Road Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.65 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 01:00 PM |
HTX N 11th · 3-0-4 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Bear Branch Sportsfields |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–4 | 0.39 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Fri May 7 09:00 AM |
CHALLENGE UNITED 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Burroughs Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.31 | 0.91 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Houstonians FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.77 | +0.19 | 90% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at CHALLENGE UNITED · Sat Oct 24 vs San Antonio City SC · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Dallas Texans | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 5 | +33 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWW | -0.26 | -0.18 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at DKSC · Sat Oct 31 vs HTX S · Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | HTX S | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 | 2.29 | DLWWW | -0.44 | +0.13 | 76% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sting · Sun Oct 25 at HTX N · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dallas Youth | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWW | -0.31 | +0.21 | 23% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs CHALLENGE UNITED · Sat Oct 31 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Nov 1 vs HTX S See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | CHALLENGE UNITED | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 12 | 2.00 | WWWLL | -0.42 | +0.23 | 39% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Oct 18 at FC Dallas Youth · Sun Nov 1 at FC Westlake See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Westlake | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 8 | 2.00 | DWWD | -0.19 | -0.01 | 28% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas · Sun Oct 25 at DKSC · Sat Oct 31 at HTX N See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | RISE SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | +0.36 | -0.18 | 7% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at DKSC · Sun Oct 4 at Nido Dallas · Sat Oct 24 at Sting See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SOLAR SC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 11 | 1.57 | WDWWD | -0.51 | +0.22 | 25% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 25 vs RISE SC · Sun Nov 8 at Dallas Texans See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SAFC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 | 1.43 | WDWLL | +1.07 | -0.95 | 6% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Lonestar ATX White · Sat Oct 31 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Nov 1 at RISE SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sting | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | LWDLW | -1.08 | +0.57 | 0% | 11.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at HTX S · Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Albion Hurricanes FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | HTX N | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLLL | -0.29 | +0.25 | 6% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs HTX S · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake · Sat Nov 7 vs RISE SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Albion Hurricanes FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +0.71 | -0.18 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Nido Dallas · Sun Oct 4 at DKSC · Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Lonestar ATX White | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3 | 0.50 | WLLLL | +0.41 | -0.21 | 0% | 12.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs SAFC · Sat Oct 24 at DKSC · Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | DKSC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 30 | -25 | 1 | 0.17 | LDLLL | +0.86 | -0.33 | 0% | 14.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Dallas Texans · Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC · Sun Oct 4 vs Albion Hurricanes FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Nido Dallas | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 23 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.92 | -0.26 | 0% | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 4 vs RISE SC · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Antonio City SC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 37 | -35 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.99 | -0.50 | 0% | 15.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC · Sat Oct 31 at RISE SC · Sun Nov 1 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.01 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.