SAFC STXCL
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU18/19 · 10 teams · San Antonio FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.3 against · 1.15 expected points)
| Season so far | SAFC STXCL | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-1 | 1-2-0 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D | D D W |
| Biggest win | 3–2 vs NB AJAX STXCL | 5–1 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez |
| Worst loss | 2–6 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.37 | +0.36 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.63 | -1.22 |
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at FC Westlake STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 32%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A sit 5th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SAFC STXCL – Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 27%
- 6th 30%
- 7th 18%
- 8th 9%
- 9th 3%
- 10th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lonestar RGV STXCL | 2.33 (+1.00) | 1st (2.26) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red | 2.00 (+0.67) | 3rd (1.98) | 14 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 3 | BTX Soccer Club STXCL | 1.83 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.06) | 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Westlake STXCL | 1.80 (+0.47) | 4th (1.82) | 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 5 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A | 1.67 (+0.34) | 5th (1.40) | A point next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link SAFC STXCL to Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.29 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A 5th · 1-2-0 · GD +4 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.71 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
Sting CC STXCL Martinez 10th · 0-0-4 · GD -21 |
Away ASP / CC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 1.37 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 7th · 1-1-1 · GD -4 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 08:00 AM |
BTX Soccer Club STXCL 3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +24 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.38 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:30 AM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B 9th · 0-2-3 · GD -16 |
Away far trip
Applegate |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 1.37 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Lonestar RGV STXCL | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | +0.51 | -0.57 | 98% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWLD | +0.11 | -0.32 | 90% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B · Sun Oct 25 vs SAFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | BTX Soccer Club STXCL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 11 | 1.83 | WLDWD | -0.37 | -0.14 | 97% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at NB AJAX STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Westlake STXCL | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 | 1.80 | DWWDD | +0.22 | -0.42 | 77% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 5 | 1.67 | WDD | -1.22 | +0.54 | 21% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SAFC STXCL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | 1.33 | DWL | +0.63 | -0.29 | 13% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A · Sun Oct 25 at Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | 1.33 | LWD | -0.91 | +0.42 | 3% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A · Sun Nov 1 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | NB AJAX STXCL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | LLWDL | +0.21 | -0.17 | 1% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 2 | 0.40 | LLLDD | +0.42 | -0.25 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sting CC STXCL Martinez | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 24 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.68 | -0.05 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NB AJAX STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.