Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU18/19 · 10 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
ASP / CC, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.9 against · 1.64 expected points)
| Season so far | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A | SAFC STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-0 | 1-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D D W | L W D |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez | 3–2 vs NB AJAX STXCL |
| Worst loss | — | 2–6 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.37 | -0.37 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.19 | +0.63 |
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 20% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at ASP / CC.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
FC Westlake STXCL sit 4th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.67.A point moves us above FC Westlake STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SAFC STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A – SAFC STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.25 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 30%
- 6th 27%
- 7th 15%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 1%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lonestar RGV STXCL | 2.33 (+0.66) | 1st (2.23) | 16 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red | 2.17 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.15) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 3 | BTX Soccer Club STXCL | 1.83 (+0.16) | 3rd (2.05) | A point next game |
| 4 | FC Westlake STXCL | 1.80 (+0.13) | 4th (1.81) | A point next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A to SAFC STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.53 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
SAFC STXCL 6th · 1-1-1 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.64 | 1.66 | Swing game |
| Fri Oct 30 06:30 PM |
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 7th · 1-1-1 · GD -4 |
Away Town & Country |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
FC Westlake STXCL 4th · 2-3-0 · GD +6 |
Home Town & Country |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.22 | 1.62 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
Lonestar RGV STXCL 1st · 2-1-0 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–3 | 0.78 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 04:00 PM |
NB AJAX STXCL 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
BTX Soccer Club STXCL 3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.47 | 1.40 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Lonestar RGV STXCL | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | +0.51 | -0.56 | 97% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 13 | 2.17 | WWLDW | -0.35 | +0.14 | 97% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SAFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | BTX Soccer Club STXCL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 11 | 1.83 | WLDWD | -0.35 | -0.14 | 96% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at NB AJAX STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Westlake STXCL | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 | 1.80 | DWWDD | +0.23 | -0.41 | 75% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 5 | 1.67 | WDD | -1.19 | +0.53 | 19% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SAFC STXCL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | 1.33 | DWL | +0.63 | -0.28 | 12% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A · Sun Oct 25 at Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | 1.33 | LWD | -1.11 | +0.53 | 2% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A · Sun Nov 1 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | NB AJAX STXCL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | LLWDL | +0.22 | -0.17 | 2% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 29 | -23 | 2 | 0.33 | LLDDL | +0.58 | -0.55 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs SAFC STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sting CC STXCL Martinez | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 24 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.82 | -0.17 | 0% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NB AJAX STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.