Lonestar RGV STXCL

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU18/19 · 10 teams · Lonestar SAT (all teams)

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1st

2-1-0 record · 3 played

2.33 points per game

+8 goal diff · 13–5

DWWlast 3

98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8

+0.51 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM

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Lonestar RGV STXCL
1st · 2.33 PPG

FC Westlake STXCL
4th · 1.80 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 2 ↗

48% 22% 30%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.5 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar RGV STXCL	FC Westlake STXCL
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-0	2-3-0
Points per game	2.33	1.80
Goals for / game	4.3	1.8
Goals against / game	1.7	0.6
Clean sheets	0	3
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W D	D D W W D
Biggest win	6–2 at SAFC STXCL	5–0 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.49	+0.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.51	+0.22

Common opponents: BTX Soccer Club STXCL — we 2–2; they 1–1. SAFC STXCL — we 6–2; they 0–0. NB AJAX STXCL — we 5–1; they 2–2.

Game plan

Hard to break down
FC Westlake STXCL concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 22% / loss 30%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Westlake STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar RGV STXCL – FC Westlake STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1
Win 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 1.75 PPG	4th▼ down 3	5th▼ down 4	6th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

57% finish 1st

98% top 4

2% below the top 4

1.8 average finish

1st 57%
2nd 21%
3rd 13%
4th 7%
5th 2%
6th <1%
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar RGV STXCL to FC Westlake STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.57 · 10th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM	FC Westlake STXCL 4th · 2-3-0 · GD +6	Home ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.65	2.16	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +6	Away ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.46	2.02	Upside
Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A 5th · 1-2-0 · GD +4	Home ASP / CC	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–1	2.07	2.03	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B 9th · 0-2-3 · GD -16	Away ASP / CC	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	4–1	2.69	2.12	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 7th · 1-1-1 · GD -4	Home ASP / CC	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.54	2.18	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM	Sting CC STXCL Martinez 10th · 0-0-4 · GD -21	Home ASP / CC	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	6–1	2.93	2.26	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar RGV STXCL

2.33

DWW

+0.51

-0.57

98%

1.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	NB AJAX STXCL (8th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	SAFC STXCL (6th)	6–2
D	Thu Sep 24	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (4th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red (2nd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (5th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B (9th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (7th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (10th)	6–1	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red

2.00

WWWLD

+0.11

-0.32

89%

3.0

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Westlake STXCL (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (10th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B · Sun Oct 25 vs SAFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B (9th)	2–1	75%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SAFC STXCL (6th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (7th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BTX Soccer Club STXCL

+24

1.83

WLDWD

-0.37

-0.14

96%

2.3

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (10th)	13–0
D	Thu Sep 24	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red (2nd)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B (9th)	9–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (7th)	6–0

Next: Sun Nov 8 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at NB AJAX STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SAFC STXCL (6th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	NB AJAX STXCL (8th)	4–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (5th)	3–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake STXCL

1.80

DWWDD

+0.22

-0.42

78%

3.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red (2nd)	1–0
W	Fri Sep 18	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B (9th)	5–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	SAFC STXCL (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (7th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (10th)	3–0	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A

1.67

WDD

-1.22

+0.54

21%

5.5

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red (2nd)	1–1
D	Fri Oct 16	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B (9th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (10th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SAFC STXCL (6th)	2–1	48%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (7th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (4th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (1st)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	NB AJAX STXCL (8th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–3	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC STXCL

-3

1.33

DWL

+0.63

-0.29

13%

5.9

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (1st)	2–6
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (8th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake STXCL (4th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A · Sun Oct 25 at Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (5th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (10th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B (9th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-4

1.33

LWD

-0.91

+0.42

7.3

D	Fri Oct 23	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A · Sun Nov 1 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (4th)	0–1	18%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NB AJAX STXCL (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SAFC STXCL (6th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red (2nd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NB AJAX STXCL

-4

0.80

LLWDL

+0.21

-0.17

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (1st)	1–5
D	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake STXCL (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B (9th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	SAFC STXCL (6th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (10th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (5th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–4	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B

-16

0.40

LLLDD

+0.42

-0.25

8.9

D	Fri Oct 23	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (7th)	1–1
D	Fri Oct 16	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NB AJAX STXCL (8th)	1–4
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	1–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (10th)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SAFC STXCL (6th)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Martinez

-21

0.00

LLLL

+0.68

-0.05

9.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (7th)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	BTX Soccer Club STXCL (3rd)	0–13
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold A (5th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Boerne Soccer Club STXCL Red (2nd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NB AJAX STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (8th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SAFC STXCL (6th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold B (9th)	2–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (1st)	1–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.