MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU18/19 · 12 teams · MAFC (all teams)

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6th

3-1-2 record · 6 played

1.67 points per game

+12 goal diff · 21–9

WLLWDlast 5

33% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2

-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:00 AM

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MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL
6th · 1.67 PPG

Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL
3rd · 2.57 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 2 ↗

24% 18% 59%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.7 against · 0.88 expected points)

Season so far	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL
Position	6th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-2	6-0-1
Points per game	1.67	2.57
Goals for / game	3.5	4.0
Goals against / game	1.5	0.9
Clean sheets	3	5
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	D W L L W	W W L W W
Biggest win	11–0 at Imperial SC STXCL	6–0 at CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL
Worst loss	0–4 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I	1–4 at RISE SC STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.22	+1.83
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.29	-0.98

Common opponents: AHFC CENTRAL STXCL — we 3–0; they 5–2. Houstonians FC STXCL — we 3–0; they 5–0. RISE SC STXCL — we 1–2; they 1–4. Imperial SC STXCL — we 11–0; they 4–0. Cavalry FC STXCL — we 3–3; they 3–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.1.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL concede only 0.9/game with 5 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL – Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.43 PPG	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1
Win 1.86 PPG	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds	7th▼ down 1
Draw 1.57 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	7th▼ down 1
Loss 1.43 PPG	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

33% top 4

67% below the top 4

5.2 average finish

1st
2nd 4%
3rd 11%
4th 18%
5th 19%
6th 25%
7th 22%
8th 1%
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I	3.00 (+1.33)	1st (2.69)	23 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	MAFC STXCL Red	3.00 (+1.33)	3rd (2.14)	23 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
3	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL	2.57 (+0.90)	2nd (2.25)	19 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
4	Dynamos STXCL	2.17 (+0.50)	4th (1.98)	14 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
5	RISE SC STXCL	1.86 (+0.19)	7th (1.72)	11 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

23 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL to Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

3 even

10 favour them

+0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.23 · 4th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +22	Away Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.88	1.55	Upside
Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM	MAFC STXCL Red 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +7	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.54	1.55	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 08:00 AM	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL 10th · 1-1-5 · GD -14	Home Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.67	1.68	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM	Dynamos STXCL 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.56	1.67	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 08:00 AM	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II 9th · 1-0-4 · GD -8	Home Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	4–1	2.57	1.75	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I

+27

3.00

WWWWW

-0.44

+0.00

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Cavalry FC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Thu Nov 12	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	1–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MAFC STXCL Red

3.00

WWWWW

-1.31

+1.04

77%

3.5

W	Thu Oct 15	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–0	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–1	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL

+22

2.57

WWLWW

-0.98

+1.44

94%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	5–2
L	Wed Oct 14	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	1–0	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

2.17

WDWWL

+0.20

-0.23

61%

4.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	3–0
W	Wed Sep 16	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	0–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	4–0	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

1.86

DWWLW

+0.13

-0.17

16%

5.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–7
W	Wed Oct 14	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II · Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 at Cavalry FC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	2–2	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	3–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL

+12

1.67

WLLWD

-0.29

+0.23

33%

5.2

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	3–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	11–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	4–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cavalry FC STXCL

+10

1.57

WDLWD

+0.15

-0.37

19%

5.5

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	3–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–1	83%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

-16

0.86

LWLWL

+0.42

-0.29

9.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	2–5
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II · Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II

-8

0.60

LLLWL

+0.20

+0.04

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	7–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Imperial SC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	2–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Thu Nov 12	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	1–4	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL

-14

0.57

LWDLL

+0.31

-0.11

9.7

L	Thu Oct 15	at	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	0–6
L	Wed Sep 16	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-13

0.43

LWLLL

+0.02

+0.33

10.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	2–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	6–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	0–5	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC STXCL

-37

0.00

LLLLL

+0.57

-0.09

12.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (6th)	0–11
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (8th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (3rd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Cavalry FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (10th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (9th)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.