Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU18/19 · 12 teams · Kaptiva Sports Academy (all teams)

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2nd

6-0-1 record · 7 played

2.57 points per game

+22 goal diff · 28–6

WWLWWlast 5

95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5

-0.92 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL
2nd · 2.57 PPG

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I
1st · 3.00 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 4 ↗

31% 19% 50%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.5 against · 1.12 expected points)

Season so far	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-1	5-0-0
Points per game	2.57	3.00
Goals for / game	4.0	6.0
Goals against / game	0.9	0.6
Clean sheets	5	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W L W W	W W W W W
Biggest win	6–0 at CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL	8–0 vs Imperial SC STXCL
Worst loss	1–4 at RISE SC STXCL	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.84	+2.99
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.92	-0.51

Common opponents: Imperial SC STXCL — we 4–0; they 8–0. RISE SC STXCL — we 1–4; they 7–1. AHFC CENTRAL STXCL — we 5–2; they 7–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I score 6.0/game — well above the league's 2.2.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I concede only 0.6/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 31%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I have won 5 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL – CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.38 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1
Win 2.63 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Draw 2.38 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 2.25 PPG	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

9% finish 1st

95% top 4

5% below the top 4

2.5 average finish

1st 9%
2nd 50%
3rd 25%
4th 10%
5th 4%
6th 1%
7th <1%
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I	3.00 (+0.43)	1st (2.69)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection

How the results connect

24 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL to CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

3 even

17 favour them

-2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.38 · 1st hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27	Home Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	31%	2–2	1.12	2.39	Upside
Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +12	Home Dyess Park	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.96	2.34	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	Dynamos STXCL 4th · 5-1-1 · GD +11	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–1	1.71	2.28	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	MAFC STXCL Red 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +4	Home Zube Park	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–0	2.10	2.26	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I

+27

3.00

WWWWW

-0.51

+0.11

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Cavalry FC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	4–1	90%
·	Thu Nov 12	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	2–0	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL

+22

2.57

WWLWW

-0.92

+1.38

95%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	5–2
L	Wed Oct 14	at	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	2–0	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MAFC STXCL Red

2.50

WWWWL

-0.79

+1.09

51%

4.7

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–3
W	Thu Oct 15	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	0–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

+11

2.29

DWWLW

+0.31

-0.57

94%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 24	at	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	3–0
W	Wed Sep 16	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	4–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL

+12

1.67

WLLWD

-0.40

+0.41

29%

5.3

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	3–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	11–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

1.63

WWLWL

+0.08

-0.05

6.4

L	Sat Oct 24	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–7
W	Wed Oct 14	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 at Cavalry FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	3–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cavalry FC STXCL

+10

1.57

WDLWD

+0.28

-0.54

25%

5.2

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	3–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–1	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II

-6

1.00

LLWLW

+0.31

-0.17

8.3

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	7–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 31 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC STXCL Red See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	1–1	21%
·	Thu Nov 12	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL

-7

0.88

WDLLW

-0.28

+0.95

9.4

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	7–0
L	Thu Oct 15	at	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	0–6
L	Wed Sep 16	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

-16

0.86

LWLWL

+0.39

-0.19

9.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	2–5
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II · Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-13

0.43

LWLLL

-0.03

+0.48

10.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	2–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Imperial SC STXCL (12th)	6–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	0–5	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	1–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC STXCL

-44

0.00

LLLLL

+0.30

+0.54

12.0

L	Sat Oct 24	at	CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL (9th)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 18	at	RISE SC STXCL (6th)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL (5th)	0–11
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I (1st)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Cavalry FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II · Sun Nov 15 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cavalry FC STXCL (7th)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II (8th)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Dynamos STXCL (4th)	0–4	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.