AHFC CENTRAL STXCL
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU18/19 · 12 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:00 AM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.6 against · 1.25 expected points)
| Season so far | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-5 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 0.86 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals against / game | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W L | L W L L L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL | 7–2 at Houstonians FC STXCL |
| Worst loss | 0–7 at Cavalry FC STXCL | 0–5 at Cavalry FC STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.43 | -0.88 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.42 | +0.20 |
Common opponents: Cavalry FC STXCL — we 0–7; they 0–5. CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL — we 2–0; they 1–2. Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL — we 2–5; they 0–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL, 0–7 at Cavalry FC STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC CENTRAL STXCL – CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.88 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.13 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.88 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 35%
- 9th 29%
- 10th 21%
- 11th 14%
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.64 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I | 3.00 (+2.14) | 1st (2.69) | 27 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | MAFC STXCL Red | 3.00 (+2.14) | 3rd (2.14) | 27 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL | 2.57 (+1.71) | 2nd (2.25) | 23 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Dynamos STXCL | 2.17 (+1.31) | 4th (1.98) | 18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | RISE SC STXCL | 1.86 (+1.00) | 7th (1.72) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL | 1.67 (+0.81) | 5th (1.75) | 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Cavalry FC STXCL | 1.57 (+0.71) | 6th (1.73) | 12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
20 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link AHFC CENTRAL STXCL to CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.29 · 11th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II 9th · 1-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.25 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
Houstonians FC STXCL 11th · 1-0-6 · GD -13 |
Home Zube Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.51 | 0.97 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
RISE SC STXCL 5th · 4-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.50 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
Dynamos STXCL 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away Zube Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.32 | 0.87 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | +27 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.44 | +0.00 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Cavalry FC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MAFC STXCL Red | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.31 | +1.04 | 77% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | -0.98 | +1.44 | 93% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Dynamos STXCL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWWL | +0.20 | -0.23 | 62% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | RISE SC STXCL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 | 1.86 | DWWLW | +0.13 | -0.17 | 16% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II · Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 at Cavalry FC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWD | -0.29 | +0.23 | 32% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Cavalry FC STXCL | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 11 | 1.57 | WDLWD | +0.15 | -0.37 | 20% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 6 | 0.86 | LWLWL | +0.42 | -0.29 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II · Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.20 | +0.04 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Imperial SC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 4 | 0.57 | LWDLL | +0.31 | -0.11 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 3 | 0.43 | LWLLL | +0.02 | +0.33 | 0% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Imperial SC STXCL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 39 | -37 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.57 | -0.09 | 0% | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Cavalry FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.