Houstonians FC STXCL
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU18/19 · 12 teams · Houstonians FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.5 against · 1.67 expected points)
| Season so far | Houstonians FC STXCL | CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-6 | 1-1-5 |
| Points per game | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W L | L L D W L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Imperial SC STXCL | 2–1 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL | 0–6 vs Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.29 | -1.29 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.02 | +0.31 |
Common opponents: MAFC STXCL Red — we 0–2; they 0–1. Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL — we 0–5; they 0–6. Dynamos STXCL — we 1–2; they 0–4. RISE SC STXCL — we 0–3; they 2–2. CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II — we 2–7; they 2–1.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 4 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL, 0–2 vs MAFC STXCL Red, 0–5 vs Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL, 0–3 at RISE SC STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 22% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL sit 10th on 0.57 PPG; we are on 0.43.A point moves us above CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Houstonians FC STXCL – CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.50 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
9th▲ up 2 | 10th▲ up 1 | 11th— holds |
| Draw 0.50 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
| Loss 0.38 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 11th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th 7%
- 9th 18%
- 10th 22%
- 11th 52%
- 12th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.36 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I | 3.00 (+2.57) | 1st (2.69) | 30 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | MAFC STXCL Red | 3.00 (+2.57) | 3rd (2.14) | 30 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL | 2.57 (+2.14) | 2nd (2.25) | 26 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Dynamos STXCL | 2.17 (+1.74) | 4th (1.98) | 21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | RISE SC STXCL | 1.86 (+1.43) | 7th (1.72) | 18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL | 1.67 (+1.24) | 5th (1.75) | 16 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Cavalry FC STXCL | 1.57 (+1.14) | 6th (1.73) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 0.86 (+0.43) | 8th (0.87) | 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
| 9 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II | 0.60 (+0.17) | 9th (0.84) | A point next game |
| 10 | CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL | 0.57 (+0.14) | 10th (0.71) | A point next game |
How the results connect
26 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Houstonians FC STXCL to CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.33 · 3rd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL 10th · 1-1-5 · GD -14 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.67 | 0.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27 |
Home Zube Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.09 | 0.53 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 8th · 2-0-5 · GD -16 |
Away Zube Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.29 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Cavalry FC STXCL 7th · 3-2-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Veterans Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.30 | 0.58 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | +27 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.44 | +0.00 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Cavalry FC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MAFC STXCL Red | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.31 | +1.04 | 77% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | -0.98 | +1.44 | 94% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Dynamos STXCL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWWL | +0.20 | -0.23 | 61% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | RISE SC STXCL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 | 1.86 | DWWLW | +0.13 | -0.17 | 16% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II · Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 at Cavalry FC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWD | -0.29 | +0.23 | 33% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kaptiva Sports Academy TX STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Cavalry FC STXCL | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 11 | 1.57 | WDLWD | +0.15 | -0.37 | 19% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 6 | 0.86 | LWLWL | +0.42 | -0.29 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II · Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.20 | +0.04 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Imperial SC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 4 | 0.57 | LWDLL | +0.31 | -0.11 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Guerreros Houston STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 3 | 0.43 | LWLLL | +0.02 | +0.33 | 0% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL I · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Imperial SC STXCL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 39 | -37 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.57 | -0.09 | 0% | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Cavalry FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL II See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.