South Carolina Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southeast BU14 · 11 teams · South Carolina Surf SC (all teams)

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11th

1-2-4 record · 7 played

0.71 points per game

-8 goal diff · 8–16

LLDWLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.0

+0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM

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South Carolina Surf
11th · 0.71 PPG

CESA Triumph Surge
4th · 1.63 PPG

Mesa Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗ far trip

18% 18% 65%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.5 against · 0.71 expected points)

Season so far	South Carolina Surf	CESA Triumph Surge
Position	11th	4th
Record (W-D-L)	1-2-4	4-1-3
Points per game	0.71	1.63
Goals for / game	1.1	2.0
Goals against / game	2.3	1.8
Clean sheets	1	3
Held scoreless	2	2
Form (recent first)	L W D L L	L L L W W
Biggest win	1–0 at South Carolina United	5–0 vs United Futbol Academy
Worst loss	0–4 vs Atlanta Fire United	0–5 at GSA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.77	+0.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.05	+0.14

Common opponents: GSA — we 2–3; they 3–1, 0–5. United Futbol Academy — we 3–3; they 5–0, 2–5. South Carolina United — we 1–1, 1–0; they 4–0. Concorde Fire Premier — we 0–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs Atlanta Fire United, 0–1 vs Concorde Fire Premier.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Confidence is low on their side
CESA Triumph Surge have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Mesa Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Charlotte SA Gold sit 10th on 0.86 PPG; we are on 0.71.
A point moves us above Charlotte SA Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CESA Triumph Surge game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Carolina Surf – CESA Triumph Surge) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.63 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	11th— holds
Win 1.00 PPG	9th▲ up 2	9th▲ up 2	9th▲ up 2
Draw 0.75 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	11th— holds
Loss 0.63 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	11th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

10.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th <1%
6th 1%
7th 3%
8th 7%
9th 14%
10th 26%
11th 48%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	NTH NASA	2.57 (+1.86)	1st (2.17)	47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
2	Concorde Fire Premier	2.29 (+1.58)	2nd (1.98)	41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3	GSA	1.78 (+1.07)	3rd (1.81)	31 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4	CESA Triumph Surge	1.63 (+0.92)	4th (1.59)	28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
5	United Futbol Academy	1.44 (+0.73)	7th (1.28)	24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6	Concorde Fire Platinum	1.33 (+0.62)	5th (1.42)	22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7	CESA Triumph Summit	1.25 (+0.54)	6th (1.33)	20 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8	Atlanta Fire United	1.00 (+0.29)	8th (1.11)	Win next game
9	South Carolina United	0.89 (+0.18)	10th (0.90)	A point next game
10	Charlotte SA Gold	0.86 (+0.15)	9th (1.05)	A point next game

How the results connect

41 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link South Carolina Surf to CESA Triumph Surge through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us

27 favour them

-1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 3rd hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 17 09:00 AM no score posted	Concorde Fire Platinum 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +1	Home CW-Flowers @ Patriots Point	●●●●● Very tough	24%	0–1	0.99	0.75	Upside
Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM	CESA Triumph Surge 4th · 4-1-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Mesa Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.71	0.74	Upside
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	CESA Triumph Summit 7th · 3-1-4 · GD -1	Away far trip Mesa Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–1	0.86	0.76	Upside
Sat Feb 6 03:00 PM	CESA Triumph Surge 4th · 4-1-3 · GD +2	Home Shea Family Fields	●●●●● Very tough	25%	1–2	0.94	0.77	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Atlanta Fire United 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -4	Away	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–1	1.01	0.79	Upside
Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM	NTH NASA 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +9	Away far trip Metro North Park	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.42	0.76	Upside
Sat Mar 13 02:00 PM	Concorde Fire Premier 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +7	Away far trip Georgia Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	11%	0–2	0.50	0.75	Upside
Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM	Concorde Fire Platinum 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +1	Away far trip Georgia Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	19%	0–1	0.80	0.75	Upside
Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM	CESA Triumph Summit 7th · 3-1-4 · GD -1	Home Shea Family Fields	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–1	1.09	0.77	Upside
Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM	Charlotte SA Gold 10th · 2-0-5 · GD -5	Home Shea Family Fields	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.29	0.80	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Charlotte SA Gold 10th · 2-0-5 · GD -5	Away	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–1	1.03	0.81	Upside
Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM	GSA 3rd · 5-1-3 · GD +10	Home Shea Family Fields	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–2	0.62	0.80	Upside
Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM	United Futbol Academy 5th · 4-1-4 · GD -3	Home Shea Family Fields	●●●●○ Tough	32%	1–2	1.16	0.82	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

NTH NASA

2.57

WWWWW

-0.05

-0.11

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 4	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	GSA (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	4–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 18 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	GSA (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–0	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	South Carolina United (9th)	2–0	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Concorde Fire Premier

2.29

WWLWW

-0.20

+0.00

96%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	NTH NASA (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	South Carolina United (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	4–1
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	GSA (3rd)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 1	at	GSA (3rd)	1–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GSA

+10

1.78

WDWWW

-0.14

-0.03

90%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	3–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	NTH NASA (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	5–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	South Carolina United (9th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	2–1	45%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CESA Triumph Surge

1.63

WWLLL

+0.14

-0.11

60%

4.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	GSA (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	2–5
L	Fri Sep 18	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	GSA (3rd)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	South Carolina United (9th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	NTH NASA (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United Futbol Academy

-3

1.44

LWDWW

-0.14

+0.16

6.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	5–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	NTH NASA (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 vs NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GSA (3rd)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	South Carolina United (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	GSA (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Concorde Fire Platinum

1.33

LWWDL

-0.07

+0.02

25%

5.6

L	Sun Sep 20	at	NTH NASA (1st)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	South Carolina United (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	0–1
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	0–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	1–0	49%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	GSA (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	0–1	24%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun May 2	at	GSA (3rd)	1–1	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CESA Triumph Summit

-1

1.25

WLWLL

+0.16

-0.10

16%

6.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	GSA (3rd)	0–1
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	GSA (3rd)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–4
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Feb 14 at South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	South Carolina United (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	NTH NASA (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atlanta Fire United

-4

1.00

LDLWL

+0.11

-0.02

8.1

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	GSA (3rd)	1–5
W	Sun Aug 30	at	NTH NASA (1st)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Oct 18 vs NTH NASA · Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	GSA (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	South Carolina United (9th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina United

-8

0.89

WDDLL

-0.10

+0.17

9.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	GSA (3rd)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Feb 13 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	GSA (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NTH NASA (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	0–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA Gold

-5

0.86

LLLWW

+0.13

-0.02

8.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	South Carolina United (9th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	GSA (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	GSA (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	NTH NASA (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	South Carolina Surf (11th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	South Carolina Surf (11th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina Surf

-8

0.71

LLDWL

+0.05

+0.09

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	South Carolina United (9th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	South Carolina United (9th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	NTH NASA (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 27	at	United Futbol Academy (5th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	GSA (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Oct 31 at CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Nov 1 at CESA Triumph Summit See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	CESA Triumph Surge (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Atlanta Fire United (8th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	NTH NASA (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Concorde Fire Premier (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	CESA Triumph Summit (7th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA Gold (10th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	GSA (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	United Futbol Academy (5th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.