GSA
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southeast BU14 · 11 teams · Gwinnett Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.8 against · 1.35 expected points)
| Season so far | GSA | NTH NASA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-3 | 6-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.78 | 2.57 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W D W | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Charlotte SA Gold | 4–0 vs United Futbol Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at CESA Triumph Summit | 0–2 vs Atlanta Fire United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.80 | +0.85 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.14 | -0.05 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–2 at NTH NASA (L)
Common opponents: Atlanta Fire United — we 5–1; they 0–2. Charlotte SA Gold — we 5–0; they 1–0. South Carolina Surf — we 3–2; they 4–1.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at CESA Triumph Summit.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 38%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
They arrive in form
NTH NASA have won 6 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the NTH NASA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GSA – NTH NASA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.70 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.90 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.70 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.60 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 8%
- 2nd 26%
- 3rd 40%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.45 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTH NASA | 2.57 (+0.79) | 1st (2.17) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 2 | Concorde Fire Premier | 2.29 (+0.51) | 2nd (1.98) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
How the results connect
38 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link GSA to NTH NASA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 8th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
NTH NASA 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +9 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -4 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 5th · 4-1-4 · GD -3 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.20 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.26 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
South Carolina United 9th · 2-2-5 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Charlotte SA Gold 10th · 2-0-5 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.00 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 5th · 4-1-4 · GD -3 |
Away Fowler Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 11th · 1-2-4 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 1.83 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.56 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.81 | 1.81 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTH NASA | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -0.05 | -0.11 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Concorde Fire Premier | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 16 | 2.29 | WWLWW | -0.20 | +0.00 | 96% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | GSA | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 16 | 1.78 | WDWWW | -0.14 | -0.03 | 91% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | CESA Triumph Surge | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 | 1.63 | WWLLL | +0.14 | -0.11 | 58% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | United Futbol Academy | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 | 1.44 | LWDWW | -0.14 | +0.16 | 9% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 vs NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 | 1.33 | LWWDL | -0.07 | +0.02 | 27% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | CESA Triumph Summit | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 | 1.25 | WLWLL | +0.16 | -0.10 | 16% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Feb 14 at South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Atlanta Fire United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 | 1.00 | LDLWL | +0.11 | -0.02 | 3% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Oct 18 vs NTH NASA · Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | South Carolina United | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 8 | 0.89 | WDDLL | -0.10 | +0.17 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Feb 13 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Charlotte SA Gold | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLWW | +0.13 | -0.02 | 2% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | South Carolina Surf | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 | 0.71 | LLDWL | +0.05 | +0.09 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Oct 31 at CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Nov 1 at CESA Triumph Summit See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.