CESA Triumph Surge
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southeast BU14 · 11 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM
Mesa Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.3 against · 2.11 expected points)
| Season so far | CESA Triumph Surge | South Carolina Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-3 | 1-2-4 |
| Points per game | 1.63 | 0.71 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W W | L W D L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs United Futbol Academy | 1–0 at South Carolina United |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at GSA | 0–4 vs Atlanta Fire United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.13 | -0.77 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.14 | +0.05 |
Common opponents: Concorde Fire Premier — we 1–1; they 0–1. GSA — we 3–1, 0–5; they 2–3. United Futbol Academy — we 5–0, 2–5; they 3–3. South Carolina United — we 4–0; they 1–1, 1–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at CESA Triumph Summit, 0–5 at GSA.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 65% / draw 18% / loss 18%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Triumph Surge – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.78 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.78 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.56 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.44 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 34%
- 5th 20%
- 6th 12%
- 7th 5%
- 8th 3%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.45 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTH NASA | 2.57 (+0.94) | 1st (2.17) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 2 | Concorde Fire Premier | 2.29 (+0.66) | 2nd (1.98) | 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 3 | GSA | 1.78 (+0.15) | 3rd (1.81) | 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
How the results connect
41 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link CESA Triumph Surge to South Carolina Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.11 · 11th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 TBD no score posted |
Atlanta Fire United 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM |
South Carolina Surf 11th · 1-2-4 · GD -8 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Charlotte SA Gold 10th · 2-0-5 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Harris Teeter Fields at Palisades |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 1.66 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 03:00 PM |
South Carolina Surf 11th · 1-2-4 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.85 | 1.68 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 13 03:00 PM |
South Carolina United 9th · 2-2-5 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 11:00 AM |
NTH NASA 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Metro North Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.62 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 02:45 PM |
NTH NASA 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +9 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.01 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 10:45 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -4 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 03:45 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.48 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:45 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.18 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 03:30 PM |
CESA Triumph Summit 7th · 3-1-4 · GD -1 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 1.57 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 02:45 PM |
Charlotte SA Gold 10th · 2-0-5 · GD -5 |
Home Wenwood |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.59 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | NTH NASA | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -0.05 | -0.11 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Concorde Fire Premier | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 16 | 2.29 | WWLWW | -0.20 | +0.00 | 96% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | GSA | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 16 | 1.78 | WDWWW | -0.14 | -0.03 | 91% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CESA Triumph Surge | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 | 1.63 | WWLLL | +0.14 | -0.11 | 58% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Charlotte SA Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | United Futbol Academy | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 | 1.44 | LWDWW | -0.14 | +0.16 | 9% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 vs NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 | 1.33 | LWWDL | -0.07 | +0.02 | 27% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | CESA Triumph Summit | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 | 1.25 | WLWLL | +0.16 | -0.10 | 16% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Feb 14 at South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Atlanta Fire United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 | 1.00 | LDLWL | +0.11 | -0.02 | 3% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Oct 18 vs NTH NASA · Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina United | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 8 | 0.89 | WDDLL | -0.10 | +0.17 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Feb 13 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Charlotte SA Gold | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLWW | +0.13 | -0.02 | 2% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | South Carolina Surf | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 | 0.71 | LLDWL | +0.05 | +0.09 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Oct 31 at CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Nov 1 at CESA Triumph Summit See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.