Seattle United
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU18/19 · 13 teams · Seattle United (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM
Skagit Valley College, field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.9 against · 1.67 expected points)
| Season so far | Seattle United | Northwest United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-2-0 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W D W | W L W W W |
| Biggest win | 11–0 vs XF | 6–1 vs Snohomish United |
| Worst loss | — | 2–3 at PacNW SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.27 | +1.63 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.84 | +0.03 |
Common opponents: Washington Premier — we 4–0; they 3–1. Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black — we 2–2; they 5–2. Columbia Premier SC — we 3–0; they 5–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Northwest United score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 20% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Skagit Valley College.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Northwest United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Seattle United – Northwest United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.56 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.56 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.22 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 71%
- 2nd 23%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
26 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Seattle United to Northwest United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.12 · 3rd hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
Northwest United 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 2.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
PacNW SC 4th · 4-1-3 · GD +15 |
Home Shoreline A/B fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
Spokane Shadow 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +6 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 2.38 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 6 12:00 PM |
Eastside FC 9th · 1-1-4 · GD -2 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.46 | 2.38 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 13 12:00 PM |
Central Washington Sounders 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.26 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 20 TBD |
PacNW SC 4th · 4-1-3 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 2.34 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 10 12:00 PM |
Whatcom FC Rangers 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -10 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 16 TBD |
XF 12th · 0-0-1 · GD -11 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–1 | 2.89 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 17 12:00 PM |
Columbia Premier SC 11th · 1-1-5 · GD -19 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.88 | 2.43 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 23 02:00 PM |
Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black 6th · 3-2-2 · GD +10 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 24 09:00 AM |
Snohomish United 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–0 | 2.72 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
Spokane Shadow 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.07 | 2.42 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 7 02:00 PM |
Northwest United 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 2.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 13 11:00 AM |
Snohomish United 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 14 TBD |
Valor Soccer 13th · 0-0-3 · GD -24 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.96 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM |
Washington Premier 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 2.44 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Seattle United | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 6 | +28 | 20 | 2.50 | WDWDW | -0.84 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Northwest United · Sat Oct 31 vs PacNW SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Spokane Shadow See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Northwest United | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWLW | +0.03 | -0.41 | 97% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at XF · Sun Oct 25 vs Seattle United · Sat Oct 31 at Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Central Washington Sounders | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 16 | 2.29 | WWLDW | +0.33 | -0.46 | 74% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at XF · Sun Sep 27 at Whatcom FC Rangers · Sun Oct 25 vs Washington Premier See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | PacNW SC | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 13 | 1.63 | WLWLD | -0.17 | -0.39 | 60% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at XF · Sat Oct 31 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 7 at Columbia Premier SC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Spokane Shadow | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 13 | 1.63 | DWWLL | +0.20 | -0.44 | 24% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs XF · Sat Oct 24 vs Valor Soccer · Sun Oct 25 at Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 11 | 1.57 | WLDLW | -0.07 | -0.31 | 41% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Eastside FC · Sat Sep 26 at Whatcom FC Rangers · Sun Oct 18 at Washington Premier See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Washington Premier | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +0.54 | -0.36 | 3% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black · Sun Oct 25 at Central Washington Sounders · Sat Oct 31 vs XF See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Whatcom FC Rangers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.69 | -0.24 | 0% | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black · Sun Sep 27 vs Central Washington Sounders · Sat Oct 3 at XF See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Eastside FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLWD | +0.97 | -0.56 | 1% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black · Sun Oct 11 vs XF · Sun Oct 25 at Valor Soccer See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Snohomish United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 | 0.67 | DLLWL | +0.25 | -0.20 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs XF · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastside FC · Sun Nov 8 at Washington Premier See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Columbia Premier SC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 4 | 0.57 | DLLWL | +0.72 | -0.26 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs XF · Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Spokane Shadow See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | XF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +2.27 | -0.09 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Snohomish United · Sun Sep 20 vs Central Washington Sounders · Sun Sep 27 at Columbia Premier SC See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Valor Soccer | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 25 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.54 | -0.09 | 0% | 12.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Whatcom FC Rangers · Sun Oct 18 vs Whatcom FC Rangers · Sat Oct 24 at Spokane Shadow See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.