TableChase Clubs

Seattle United

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU18/19 · 13 teams · Seattle United (all teams)

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1st
6-2-0 record · 8 played
2.50 points per game
+28 goal diff · 34–6
WDWDWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4
-0.84 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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Seattle United
1st · 2.50 PPG
at
Northwest United
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Skagit Valley College, field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.9 against · 1.67 expected points)

Season so farSeattle UnitedNorthwest United
Position1st2nd
Record (W-D-L)6-2-05-0-1
Points per game2.502.50
Goals for / game4.33.8
Goals against / game0.81.3
Clean sheets41
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W D W D WW L W W W
Biggest win11–0 vs XF6–1 vs Snohomish United
Worst loss—2–3 at PacNW SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.27+1.63
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.84+0.03

Common opponents: Washington Premier — we 4–0; they 3–1. Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black — we 2–2; they 5–2. Columbia Premier SC — we 3–0; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Northwest United score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 49% / draw 20% / loss 31%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Skagit Valley College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Northwest United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Seattle United – Northwest United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.56 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.56 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.22 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

71% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.4 average finish
  1. 1st 71%
  2. 2nd 23%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

26 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Seattle United to Northwest United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
4 even
13 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–5 4–0 1–3 2–2 2–5 2–2 3–2 1–2 4–3 5–0 5–1 2–1 1–6 4–3 2–4 2–1 3–0 0–4 0–0 Seattle United 1st Columbia Premier SC 11th Washington Premier 7th Wenatchee FA -RL B0… 6th Central Washington … 3rd Whatcom FC Rangers 8th Eastside FC 9th Spokane Shadow 5th Snohomish United 10th Northwest United 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 3rd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM
Northwest United
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +15
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 2.41 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
PacNW SC
4th · 4-1-3 · GD +15
Home
Shoreline A/B fields
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.14 2.38 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
12:00 PM
Spokane Shadow
5th · 4-1-3 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.32 2.38 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
12:00 PM
Eastside FC
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.46 2.38 Bank it
Sun Dec 13
12:00 PM
Central Washington Sounders
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.26 2.37 Bank it
Sun Dec 20
TBD
PacNW SC
4th · 4-1-3 · GD +15
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.86 2.34 Swing game
Sun Jan 10
12:00 PM
Whatcom FC Rangers
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.82 2.37 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
TBD
XF
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -11
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–1 2.89 2.40 Bank it
Sun Jan 17
12:00 PM
Columbia Premier SC
11th · 1-1-5 · GD -19
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.88 2.43 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
02:00 PM
Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.32 2.42 Bank it
Sun Jan 24
09:00 AM
Snohomish United
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–0 2.72 2.44 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
TBD
Spokane Shadow
5th · 4-1-3 · GD +6
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.07 2.42 Swing game
Sun Feb 7
02:00 PM
Northwest United
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +15
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 2.40 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
11:00 AM
Snohomish United
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.83 2.42 Bank it
Sun Feb 14
TBD
Valor Soccer
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -24
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.96 2.44 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
11:00 AM
Washington Premier
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -3
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 2.44 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Seattle United 8620 346+28 202.50 WDWDW -0.84 -0.12 100% 1.4
2 Northwest United 6501 238+15 152.50 WWWLW +0.03 -0.41 97% 2.2
3 Central Washington Sounders 7511 1811+7 162.29 WWLDW +0.33 -0.46 74% 3.7
4 PacNW SC 8413 2813+15 131.63 WLWLD -0.17 -0.39 60% 4.2
5 Spokane Shadow 8413 2014+6 131.63 DWWLL +0.20 -0.44 24% 5.4
6 Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black 7322 2515+10 111.57 WLDLW -0.07 -0.31 41% 4.8
7 Washington Premier 5203 1013-3 61.20 LLLWW +0.54 -0.36 3% 7.2
8 Whatcom FC Rangers 4103 313-10 30.75 LLWL +0.69 -0.24 0% 9.8
9 Eastside FC 6114 911-2 40.67 LLLWD +0.97 -0.56 1% 7.4
10 Snohomish United 6114 820-12 40.67 DLLWL +0.25 -0.20 0% 9.9
11 Columbia Premier SC 7115 423-19 40.57 DLLWL +0.72 -0.26 0% 11.2
12 XF 1001 011-11 00.00 L +2.27 -0.09 0% 11.2
13 Valor Soccer 3003 125-24 00.00 LLL +1.54 -0.09 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.