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Eastside FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU18/19 · 13 teams · Eastside FC (WA) (all teams)

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9th
1-1-4 record · 6 played
0.67 points per game
-2 goal diff · 9–11
LLLWDlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.5
+0.97 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Eastside FC
9th · 0.67 PPG
at
Valor Soccer
13th · 0.00 PPG

Petrovitsky Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.3 against · 2.53 expected points)

Season so farEastside FCValor Soccer
Position9th13th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-40-0-3
Points per game0.670.00
Goals for / game1.50.3
Goals against / game1.88.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)D W L L LL L L
Biggest win3–0 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black—
Worst loss1–3 at Spokane Shadow1–11 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.05-3.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.97+1.54

Common opponents: Seattle United — we 1–2; they 0–5. Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black — we 3–0; they 1–11. PacNW SC — we 1–1; they 0–9.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Valor Soccer average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Valor Soccer concede 8.3/game; worst result 1–11 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Valor Soccer have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Petrovitsky Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Whatcom FC Rangers sit 8th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above Whatcom FC Rangers on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valor Soccer game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eastside FC – Valor Soccer) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.00 PPG
8th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Win
1.00 PPG
8th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Draw
0.71 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Loss
0.57 PPG
11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
7.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 34%
  8. 8th 47%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Seattle United 2.50 (+1.83) 1st (2.44) 56 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Northwest United 2.50 (+1.83) 2nd (2.26) 56 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
3 Central Washington Sounders 2.29 (+1.62) 3rd (2.02) 51 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
4 PacNW SC 1.63 (+0.96) 4th (1.92) 36 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
5 Spokane Shadow 1.63 (+0.96) 6th (1.78) 36 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
6 Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black 1.57 (+0.90) 5th (1.85) 34 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
7 Washington Premier 1.20 (+0.53) 7th (1.46) 25 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
8 Whatcom FC Rangers 0.75 (+0.08) 9th (0.92) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Eastside FC to Valor Soccer through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+7.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 5–0 1–1 9–0 3–0 11–1 2–3 0–4 1–2 2–2 2–2 1–3 3–2 3–4 3–1 Eastside FC 9th Seattle United 1st PacNW SC 4th Wenatchee FA -RL B0… 6th Washington Premier 7th Central Washington … 3rd Spokane Shadow 5th Valor Soccer 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.56 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
TBD
no score posted
Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +10
Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.86 0.69 Upside
Sun Oct 11
11:00 AM
no score posted
XF
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -11
Home
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.43 0.91 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Valor Soccer
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -24
Away
Petrovitsky Park
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.53 1.09 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Columbia Premier SC
11th · 1-1-5 · GD -19
Home
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.32 1.21 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Snohomish United
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.84 1.27 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Northwest United
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +15
Home
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 1.24 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Central Washington Sounders
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +7
Home
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.18 1.23 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD
Whatcom FC Rangers
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.88 1.28 Swing game
Sun Dec 6
12:00 PM
Seattle United
1st · 6-2-0 · GD +28
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.40 1.22 Upside
Sun Dec 13
11:00 AM
PacNW SC
4th · 4-1-3 · GD +15
Home
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 1.21 Upside
Sun Dec 20
11:00 AM
Washington Premier
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -3
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.32 1.21 Upside
Sun Jan 10
01:00 PM
Spokane Shadow
5th · 4-1-3 · GD +6
Home
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.24 1.21 Upside
Sat Jan 23
01:00 PM
Columbia Premier SC
11th · 1-1-5 · GD -19
Away far trip
Harmony Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 1.26 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
01:00 PM
Whatcom FC Rangers
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Home
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 1.30 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
03:00 PM
Snohomish United
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Home
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.11 1.34 Swing game
Sun Feb 7
TBD
XF
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -11
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.18 1.38 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
03:00 PM
Valor Soccer
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -24
Home
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.70 1.44 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
11:00 AM
Northwest United
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +15
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.62 1.40 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Seattle United 8620 346+28 202.50 WDWDW -0.84 -0.12 100% 1.3
2 Northwest United 6501 238+15 152.50 WWWLW +0.03 -0.41 97% 2.1
3 Central Washington Sounders 7511 1811+7 162.29 WWLDW +0.33 -0.46 73% 3.7
4 PacNW SC 8413 2813+15 131.63 WLWLD -0.17 -0.39 59% 4.3
5 Spokane Shadow 8413 2014+6 131.63 DWWLL +0.20 -0.44 26% 5.3
6 Wenatchee FA -RL B08/09 Black 7322 2515+10 111.57 WLDLW -0.07 -0.31 43% 4.7
7 Washington Premier 5203 1013-3 61.20 LLLWW +0.54 -0.36 2% 7.2
8 Whatcom FC Rangers 4103 313-10 30.75 LLWL +0.69 -0.24 0% 9.8
9 Eastside FC 6114 911-2 40.67 LLLWD +0.97 -0.56 1% 7.5
10 Snohomish United 6114 820-12 40.67 DLLWL +0.25 -0.20 0% 9.9
11 Columbia Premier SC 7115 423-19 40.57 DLLWL +0.72 -0.26 0% 11.2
12 XF 1001 011-11 00.00 L +2.27 -0.09 0% 11.2
13 Valor Soccer 3003 125-24 00.00 LLL +1.54 -0.09 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.