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WNY Flash Binghamton

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU13 · 12 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)

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9th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
-1 goal diff · 12–13
LWLWLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
+0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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WNY Flash Binghamton
9th · 1.00 PPG
vs
STA MOSC
1st · 2.50 PPG

Marywood University Athletics, Grass Field ↗ · grass

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.8 against · 0.66 expected points)

Season so farWNY Flash BinghamtonSTA MOSC
Position9th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-0-45-0-1
Points per game1.002.50
Goals for / game2.04.2
Goals against / game2.20.8
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L W L W LL W W W W
Biggest win6–0 vs Eastern FC9–0 vs BWP Football Academy
Worst loss0–3 at STA MOSC0–3 at Western United Pioneers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.04+2.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.44-0.08

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 0–3 at STA MOSC (L)

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    STA MOSC concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at STA MOSC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 17%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Grass Field" at Marywood University Athletics.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • What a win does
    Eastern FC sit 8th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Eastern FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the STA MOSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Binghamton – STA MOSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.86 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
1.29 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Loss
0.86 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 47%
  8. 8th 19%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 STA MOSC 2.50 (+1.50) 2nd (2.40) 44 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Western United Pioneers FC 2.25 (+1.25) 1st (2.41) 39 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Fox Soccer Academy 2.25 (+1.25) 3rd (2.14) 39 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
4 Brentwood SC 2.17 (+1.17) 4th (1.95) 38 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
5 PSA North 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.65) 34 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 1.75 (+0.75) 6th (1.56) 29 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Long Island Slammers 1.20 (+0.20) 8th (1.05) A point next game
8 Eastern FC 1.20 (+0.20) 9th (1.01) A point next game

How the results connect

20 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link WNY Flash Binghamton to STA MOSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
17 favour them
-3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 6–0 0–9 3–0 3–0 0–8 1–4 9–0 1–2 0–5 6–0 3–1 0–3 1–3 9–0 0–9 1–3 1–2 2–1 WNY Flash Binghamton 9th Eastern FC 8th Brentwood SC 4th PSA North 5th Long Island Slammers 7th Western United Pion… 2nd Quickstrike FC 12th Fox Soccer Academy 3rd BWP Football Academy 11th STA MOSC 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 8th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 STA MOSC
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +20		 Home
Marywood University Athletics · grass		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.66 0.95 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Long Island Slammers
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -3		 Home
Marywood University Athletics · grass		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.83 1.06 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 Brentwood SC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +21		 Home
Marywood University Athletics · grass		 ●●●●○ Tough
25%		 2–3 0.91 1.04 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:30 AM		 Eastern FC
8th · 2-0-3 · GD -6		 Away far trip
Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 3–2 1.63 1.10 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.39 1.13 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.39 1.07 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-0-4 · GD -30		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 5–1 2.72 1.19 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Fox Soccer Academy
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–3 0.61 1.15 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Quickstrike FC
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.54 1.25 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-0-4 · GD -30		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 4–1 2.53 1.33 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.58 1.28 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD		 Quickstrike FC
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.71 1.36 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD		 Fox Soccer Academy
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.85 1.33 Upside
Sun May 23
10:00 AM		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4		 Away far trip
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–2 1.07 1.32 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 STA MOSC 6501 255+20 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.26 99% 1.9
2 Western United Pioneers FC 4301 182+16 92.25 LWWW +0.91 -0.54 100% 1.7
3 Fox Soccer Academy 4301 154+11 92.25 WWLW +0.90 -0.45 95% 3.0
4 Brentwood SC 6411 3514+21 132.17 LWWDW -1.50 +0.35 82% 3.8
5 PSA North 6402 1413+1 122.00 WWLWW +0.11 -0.13 15% 5.4
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 4211 1410+4 71.75 WLWD +0.21 -0.10 9% 5.7
7 Long Island Slammers 5203 1013-3 61.20 WLWLL -0.96 +0.42 0% 8.1
8 Eastern FC 5203 1925-6 61.20 WLWLL -0.79 +0.42 0% 8.4
9 WNY Flash Binghamton 6204 1213-1 61.00 LWLWL +0.44 -0.23 1% 6.9
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
11 BWP Football Academy 4004 737-30 00.00 LLLL +0.64 +0.34 0% 10.5
12 Quickstrike FC 6006 437-33 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 +0.15 0% 10.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.