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Long Island Slammers

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU13 · 12 teams · Long Island Slammers (all teams)

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7th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
-3 goal diff · 10–13
WLWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.1
-0.96 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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Long Island Slammers
7th · 1.20 PPG
at
Fox Soccer Academy
3rd · 2.25 PPG

Hudson Sports Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.4 for, 3.6 against · 0.41 expected points)

Season so farLong Island SlammersFox Soccer Academy
Position7th3rd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-33-0-1
Points per game1.202.25
Goals for / game2.03.8
Goals against / game2.61.0
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L W L WW L W W
Biggest win5–3 at BWP Football Academy7–1 vs Brentwood SC
Worst loss0–3 vs Fox Soccer Academy1–3 vs STA MOSC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.57+1.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.96+0.90

Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 0–3 vs Fox Soccer Academy (L)

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Fox Soccer Academy concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Fox Soccer Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 10%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Hudson Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fox Soccer Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Long Island Slammers – Fox Soccer Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
9th▼ down 2 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Win
1.50 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
1.17 PPG
8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG
9th▼ down 2 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 42%
  9. 9th 38%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.55 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 STA MOSC 2.50 (+1.30) 2nd (2.40) 44 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
2 Western United Pioneers FC 2.25 (+1.05) 1st (2.41) 39 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
3 Fox Soccer Academy 2.25 (+1.05) 3rd (2.14) 39 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
4 Brentwood SC 2.17 (+0.97) 4th (1.95) 38 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
5 PSA North 2.00 (+0.80) 5th (1.65) 34 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 1.75 (+0.55) 6th (1.56) 29 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Long Island Slammers to Fox Soccer Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
13 favour them
-7.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 1–3 0–3 3–1 5–3 0–9 2–1 0–8 2–3 2–3 0–4 3–3 1–7 1–2 1–3 0–6 1–4 3–9 0–9 Long Island Slammers 7th WNY Flash Binghamton 9th BWP Football Academy 11th Quickstrike FC 12th FC Dutchmen Surf 6th STA MOSC 1st PSA North 5th Brentwood SC 4th Fox Soccer Academy 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.42 · 2nd hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM
Fox Soccer Academy
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11
Away far trip
Hudson Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.41 1.07 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM
Quickstrike FC
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33
Home
Moriches Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
4–1 2.59 1.29 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
WNY Flash Binghamton
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -1
Away far trip
Marywood University Athletics · grass
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.98 1.25 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:30 AM
Western United Pioneers FC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16
Away far trip
Lusitano Stadium · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.24 1.14 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:30 PM
FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4
Home
Moriches Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.09 1.13 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:30 AM
BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-0-4 · GD -30
Home
Moriches Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
5–2 2.57 1.26 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
02:30 PM
Western United Pioneers FC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16
Home
Moriches Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 1.19 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Eastern FC
8th · 2-0-3 · GD -6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
3–2 1.67 1.23 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Brentwood SC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +21
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–4 0.40 1.17 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
PSA North
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.88 1.15 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
STA MOSC
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.45 1.10 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
PSA North
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–2 1.17 1.11 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Brentwood SC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +21
Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%
2–4 0.63 1.08 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Eastern FC
8th · 2-0-3 · GD -6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%
3–3 1.29 1.09 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
STA MOSC
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +20
Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.29 1.05 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 STA MOSC 6501 255+20 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.26 99% 1.9
2 Western United Pioneers FC 4301 182+16 92.25 LWWW +0.91 -0.54 100% 1.7
3 Fox Soccer Academy 4301 154+11 92.25 WWLW +0.90 -0.45 95% 3.0
4 Brentwood SC 6411 3514+21 132.17 LWWDW -1.50 +0.35 82% 3.8
5 PSA North 6402 1413+1 122.00 WWLWW +0.11 -0.13 15% 5.4
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 4211 1410+4 71.75 WLWD +0.21 -0.10 9% 5.7
7 Long Island Slammers 5203 1013-3 61.20 WLWLL -0.96 +0.42 0% 8.1
8 Eastern FC 5203 1925-6 61.20 WLWLL -0.79 +0.42 0% 8.4
9 WNY Flash Binghamton 6204 1213-1 61.00 LWLWL +0.44 -0.23 1% 6.9
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
11 BWP Football Academy 4004 737-30 00.00 LLLL +0.64 +0.34 0% 10.5
12 Quickstrike FC 6006 437-33 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 +0.15 0% 10.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.