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Quickstrike FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU13 · 12 teams · Quickstrike FC (all teams)

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12th
0-0-6 record · 6 played
0.00 points per game
-33 goal diff · 4–37
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.7
+0.80 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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Quickstrike FC
12th · 0.00 PPG
at
Long Island Slammers
7th · 1.20 PPG

Moriches Soccer Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.3 for, 4.0 against · 0.32 expected points)

Season so farQuickstrike FCLong Island Slammers
Position12th7th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-62-0-3
Points per game0.001.20
Goals for / game0.72.0
Goals against / game6.22.6
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless41
Form (recent first)L L L L LL L W L W
Biggest win—5–3 at BWP Football Academy
Worst loss0–9 at Brentwood SC0–3 vs Fox Soccer Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.44-0.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.80-0.96

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–2 vs Long Island Slammers (L)

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 at Eastern FC, 0–8 vs STA MOSC, 0–6 vs PSA North, 0–9 at Brentwood SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 8%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Moriches Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    BWP Football Academy sit 11th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above BWP Football Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Long Island Slammers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Quickstrike FC – Long Island Slammers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Win
0.43 PPG		 10th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 2
Draw
0.14 PPG		 10th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 2
Loss
0.00 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 43%
  11. 11th 48%
  12. 12th 9%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.10 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 STA MOSC 2.50 (+2.50) 2nd (2.40) 50 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Western United Pioneers FC 2.25 (+2.25) 1st (2.41) 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Fox Soccer Academy 2.25 (+2.25) 3rd (2.14) 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Brentwood SC 2.17 (+2.17) 4th (1.95) 44 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
5 PSA North 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.65) 40 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 1.75 (+1.75) 6th (1.56) 35 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
7 Long Island Slammers 1.20 (+1.20) 8th (1.05) 24 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 Eastern FC 1.20 (+1.20) 9th (1.01) 24 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 WNY Flash Binghamton 1.00 (+1.00) 7th (1.32) 20 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 0.00 (+0.00) 12th (0.00) Already ahead
11 BWP Football Academy 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (0.29) Already ahead

How the results connect

19 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Quickstrike FC to Long Island Slammers through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
17 favour them
-3.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 0–8 9–0 3–5 3–9 4–1 3–1 9–0 0–9 0–6 3–1 2–1 3–0 3–1 3–0 3–2 3–2 0–3 14–4 Quickstrike FC 12th STA MOSC 1st Brentwood SC 4th PSA North 5th Eastern FC 8th BWP Football Academy 11th WNY Flash Binghamton 9th Fox Soccer Academy 3rd FC Dutchmen Surf 6th Long Island Slammers 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 5th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM		 Long Island Slammers
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -3		 Away far trip
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.32 0.05 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:30 AM		 Eastern FC
8th · 2-0-3 · GD -6		 Home
Pace University · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 2–5 0.42 0.09 Upside
Sat Nov 14
TBD		 STA MOSC
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +20		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.03 0.08 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:30 PM		 PSA North
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Cedar Grove High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.17 0.09 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-0-4 · GD -30		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%		 2–4 0.96 0.17 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.22 0.18 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Fox Soccer Academy
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–5 0.09 0.17 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.04 0.16 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 WNY Flash Binghamton
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -1		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–3 0.35 0.17 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Fox Soccer Academy
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.04 0.16 Upside
Sat May 8
10:00 AM		 FC Dutchmen Surf
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4		 Away far trip
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.12 0.16 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD		 WNY Flash Binghamton
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -1		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.22 0.16 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.02 0.16 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD		 BWP Football Academy
11th · 0-0-4 · GD -30		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 3–3 1.34 0.22 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 STA MOSC 6501 255+20 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.26 99% 1.9
2 Western United Pioneers FC 4301 182+16 92.25 LWWW +0.91 -0.54 100% 1.7
3 Fox Soccer Academy 4301 154+11 92.25 WWLW +0.90 -0.45 95% 3.0
4 Brentwood SC 6411 3514+21 132.17 LWWDW -1.50 +0.35 82% 3.8
5 PSA North 6402 1413+1 122.00 WWLWW +0.11 -0.13 15% 5.4
6 FC Dutchmen Surf 4211 1410+4 71.75 WLWD +0.21 -0.10 9% 5.7
7 Long Island Slammers 5203 1013-3 61.20 WLWLL -0.96 +0.42 0% 8.1
8 Eastern FC 5203 1925-6 61.20 WLWLL -0.79 +0.42 0% 8.4
9 WNY Flash Binghamton 6204 1213-1 61.00 LWLWL +0.44 -0.23 1% 6.9
10 FC Copa Academy Brooklyn 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
11 BWP Football Academy 4004 737-30 00.00 LLLL +0.64 +0.34 0% 10.5
12 Quickstrike FC 6006 437-33 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 +0.15 0% 10.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.