BWP Football Academy
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU13 · 12 teams · BWP Football Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:00 PM
Christian Brothers Academy, Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–7 (expected goals 1.3 for, 7.4 against · 0.05 expected points)
| Season so far | BWP Football Academy | STA MOSC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-4 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 4.2 |
| Goals against / game | 9.3 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L | L W W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 9–0 vs BWP Football Academy |
| Worst loss | 4–14 vs Eastern FC | 0–3 at Western United Pioneers FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -4.02 | +2.17 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.64 | -0.08 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 0–9 at STA MOSC (L)
Game plan
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Hard to break down
STA MOSC concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–9 at STA MOSC, 0–9 vs Brentwood SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
FC Copa Academy Brooklyn sit 10th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above FC Copa Academy Brooklyn on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the STA MOSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BWP Football Academy – STA MOSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.60 PPG |
10th▲ up 1 | 10th▲ up 1 | 10th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.20 PPG |
10th▲ up 1 | 10th▲ up 1 | 11th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–7 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 55%
- 11th 41%
- 12th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STA MOSC | 2.50 (+2.50) | 2nd (2.40) | 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Western United Pioneers FC | 2.25 (+2.25) | 1st (2.41) | 45 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Fox Soccer Academy | 2.25 (+2.25) | 3rd (2.14) | 45 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
| 4 | Brentwood SC | 2.17 (+2.17) | 4th (1.95) | 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection |
| 5 | PSA North | 2.00 (+2.00) | 5th (1.65) | 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 6 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 1.75 (+1.75) | 6th (1.56) | 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 7 | Long Island Slammers | 1.20 (+1.20) | 8th (1.05) | 24 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 8 | Eastern FC | 1.20 (+1.20) | 9th (1.01) | 24 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 9 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 1.00 (+1.00) | 7th (1.32) | 20 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 10 | FC Copa Academy Brooklyn | 0.00 (+0.00) | 12th (0.00) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
12 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link BWP Football Academy to STA MOSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.34 · 4th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
STA MOSC 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +20 |
Home Christian Brothers Academy · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.05 | 0.01 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:45 AM |
Eastern FC 8th · 2-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
3–7 | 0.30 | 0.06 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:30 PM |
PSA North 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +1 |
Home Christian Brothers Academy · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
2–5 | 0.30 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Brentwood SC 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Brentwood State Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–9 | 0.03 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 10:30 AM |
Long Island Slammers 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Moriches Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
2–5 | 0.34 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Quickstrike FC 12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
4–2 | 1.89 | 0.29 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
PSA North 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–6 | 0.17 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Western United Pioneers FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
1–9 | 0.01 | 0.26 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Fox Soccer Academy 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–7 | 0.08 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–5 | 0.22 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
FC Dutchmen Surf 6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
2–6 | 0.23 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–4 | 0.38 | 0.25 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Fox Soccer Academy 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.04 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Western United Pioneers FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.03 | 0.23 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 10:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
DiCaprio Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–7 | 0.12 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sun May 23 TBD |
Quickstrike FC 12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
3–3 | 1.51 | 0.29 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | STA MOSC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.08 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Nov 1 at BWP Football Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Western United Pioneers FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 2 | +16 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +0.91 | -0.54 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North · Sun Nov 1 vs Brentwood SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Long Island Slammers See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Fox Soccer Academy | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.90 | -0.45 | 94% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Eastern FC · Sat Oct 24 vs Long Island Slammers · Sun Oct 25 at Brentwood SC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Brentwood SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 14 | +21 | 13 | 2.17 | LWWDW | -1.50 | +0.35 | 81% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fox Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Western United Pioneers FC · Sun Nov 8 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PSA North | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.11 | -0.13 | 16% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Western United Pioneers FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 8 at BWP Football Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | +0.21 | -0.10 | 10% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs STA MOSC · Sun Oct 25 at Eastern FC · Sun Nov 1 vs PSA North See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Long Island Slammers | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | -0.96 | +0.42 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fox Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Quickstrike FC · Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Eastern FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | -0.79 | +0.42 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Fox Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Quickstrike FC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.44 | -0.23 | 1% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs STA MOSC · Sun Nov 1 vs Long Island Slammers · Sun Nov 8 vs Brentwood SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Copa Academy Brooklyn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 11 | BWP Football Academy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 37 | -30 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.64 | +0.34 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs STA MOSC · Sat Nov 7 at Eastern FC · Sun Nov 8 vs PSA North See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Quickstrike FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 37 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.80 | +0.15 | 0% | 10.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Long Island Slammers · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastern FC · Sat Nov 14 at STA MOSC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.