Western United Pioneers FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU13 · 12 teams · Western United Pioneers FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM
Roots Athletic Center, Field 4 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.5 for, 1.3 against · 2.46 expected points)
| Season so far | Western United Pioneers FC | PSA North |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L | W W L W W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs Eastern FC | 6–0 at Quickstrike FC |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at STA MOSC | 0–5 vs Western United Pioneers FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.47 | +0.25 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.91 | +0.11 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 5–0 at PSA North (W)
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PSA North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Western United Pioneers FC – PSA North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.40 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
5th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 4 | 6th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 47%
- 2nd 36%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 3%
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.85 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STA MOSC | 2.50 (+0.25) | 2nd (2.40) | 41 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection |
How the results connect
13 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Western United Pioneers FC to PSA North through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.54 · 11th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
PSA North 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +1 |
Home Roots Athletic Center |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 2.29 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 03:30 PM |
Brentwood SC 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +21 |
Home Lusitano Stadium · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–2 | 2.15 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:30 AM |
Long Island Slammers 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home Lusitano Stadium · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
4–1 | 2.68 | 2.33 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
Eastern FC 8th · 2-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
5–1 | 2.68 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 02:30 PM |
Long Island Slammers 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Moriches Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.50 | 2.39 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 01:00 PM |
Brentwood SC 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Brentwood State Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
3–2 | 1.82 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Fox Soccer Academy 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 2.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
BWP Football Academy 11th · 0-0-4 · GD -30 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
9–1 | 2.98 | 2.35 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -1 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.49 | 2.36 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC Dutchmen Surf 6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Quickstrike FC 12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–0 | 2.94 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 10:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
DiCaprio Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.21 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.27 | 2.39 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
BWP Football Academy 11th · 0-0-4 · GD -30 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.95 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Quickstrike FC 12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 2.45 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 TBD |
Fox Soccer Academy 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.62 | 2.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | STA MOSC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.08 | -0.26 | 99% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Nov 1 at BWP Football Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Western United Pioneers FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 2 | +16 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +0.91 | -0.54 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North · Sun Nov 1 vs Brentwood SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Long Island Slammers See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Fox Soccer Academy | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.90 | -0.45 | 94% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Eastern FC · Sat Oct 24 vs Long Island Slammers · Sun Oct 25 at Brentwood SC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Brentwood SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 14 | +21 | 13 | 2.17 | LWWDW | -1.50 | +0.35 | 80% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fox Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Western United Pioneers FC · Sun Nov 8 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PSA North | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.11 | -0.13 | 17% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Western United Pioneers FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 8 at BWP Football Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | +0.21 | -0.10 | 9% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs STA MOSC · Sun Oct 25 at Eastern FC · Sun Nov 1 vs PSA North See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Long Island Slammers | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | -0.96 | +0.42 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fox Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Quickstrike FC · Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Eastern FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | -0.79 | +0.42 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Fox Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Quickstrike FC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.44 | -0.23 | 1% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs STA MOSC · Sun Nov 1 vs Long Island Slammers · Sun Nov 8 vs Brentwood SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Copa Academy Brooklyn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 11 | BWP Football Academy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 37 | -30 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.64 | +0.34 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs STA MOSC · Sat Nov 7 at Eastern FC · Sun Nov 8 vs PSA North See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Quickstrike FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 37 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.80 | +0.15 | 0% | 10.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Long Island Slammers · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastern FC · Sat Nov 14 at STA MOSC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.