East Coast Surf SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · New England BU14 · 12 teams · East Coast Surf (all teams)

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4th

4-0-1 record · 5 played

2.40 points per game

+9 goal diff · 15–6

WWWWLlast 5

60% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1

-0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:30 PM

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East Coast Surf SC
4th · 2.40 PPG

FC Stars
9th · 0.00 PPG

Bay Park, Field 1 ↗

67% 16% 17%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.5 against · 2.18 expected points)

Season so far	East Coast Surf SC	FC Stars
Position	4th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-1	0-0-1
Points per game	2.40	0.00
Goals for / game	3.0	2.0
Goals against / game	1.2	3.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L W W W W	L
Biggest win	4–1 at SUSA FC ACADEMY	—
Worst loss	0–1 vs Manhattan SC	2–3 at FSA FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.93	-0.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.62	+0.47

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
FC Stars concede 3.0/game; worst result 2–3 at FSA FC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Manhattan SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 16% / loss 17%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
Select sit 3rd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.40.
A win moves us above Select on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Stars game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East Coast Surf SC – FC Stars) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.50 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 2	4th— holds
Win 2.50 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 2	4th— holds
Draw 2.17 PPG	5th▼ down 1	3rd▲ up 1	5th▼ down 1
Loss 2.00 PPG	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st

60% top 4

40% below the top 4

4.1 average finish

1st 4%
2nd 13%
3rd 21%
4th 23%
5th 21%
6th 13%
7th 5%
8th 1%
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Scorpions SC	3.00 (+0.60)	2nd (2.04)	54 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2	SUSA FC	2.60 (+0.20)	1st (2.40)	46 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3	Select	2.50 (+0.10)	3rd (2.03)	Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link East Coast Surf SC to FC Stars through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

0 favour them

+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.11 · 3rd hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:30 PM	FC Stars 9th · 0-0-1 · GD -1	Home Bay Park	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.36	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM	Scorpions SC 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +7	Home Cantiague Park	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.33	2.22	Upside
Sat Oct 31 08:30 AM	FSA FC 7th · 2-1-1 · GD +2	Away far trip FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.42	2.12	Upside
Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM	Connecticut FC United 10th · 0-0-5 · GD -14	Away far trip CFC Park	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–0	2.59	2.17	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	East Meadow Soccer Club 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +6	Away far trip East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●●○ Tough	42%	1–1	1.49	2.10	Upside
Sat Nov 14 02:30 PM	SUSA FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +22	Home Mitchel Athletic Complex	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.81	1.98	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Manhattan SC 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +5	Away	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.33	1.93	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	FSA FC 7th · 2-1-1 · GD +2	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.68	1.91	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Connecticut FC United 10th · 0-0-5 · GD -14	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.72	1.97	Bank it
Sat Apr 3 TBD	AC Connecticut 12th · 0-0-5 · GD -17	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	4–0	2.78	2.02	Bank it
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Oakwood Soccer Club 11th · 0-0-4 · GD -16	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	4–1	2.81	2.07	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 TBD	SUSA FC ACADEMY 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -13	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	3–0	2.64	2.10	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 TBD	FC Stars 9th · 0-0-1 · GD -1	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.90	2.09	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM	Scorpions SC 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +7	Away Taunton Forekicks	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–2	1.06	2.04	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	East Meadow Soccer Club 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +6	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.75	2.02	Swing game
Sun May 2 TBD	SUSA FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +22	Away	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–2	0.59	1.96	Upside
Sun May 9 TBD	Select 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +10	Away	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.14	1.92	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Scorpions SC

3.00

-1.40

+0.04

79%

3.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	3–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Select · Sat Oct 24 at Manhattan SC · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf SC See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	Select (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FSA FC (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Stars (9th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Select (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	FC Stars (9th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FSA FC (7th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat May 15	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	4–0	89%
·	Sun May 16	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	3–0	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC

+22

2.60

WWWDW

-1.19

+0.11

99%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	5–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	FSA FC (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Select · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at East Coast Surf SC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Select (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	FC Stars (9th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Select (3rd)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Stars (9th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	FSA FC (7th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat May 1	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun May 2	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat May 8	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	5–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Select

+10

2.50

WWLWW

-0.47

+0.05

80%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FSA FC (7th)	1–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Scorpions SC · Sat Oct 24 vs SUSA FC · Thu Oct 29 at FC Stars See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Thu Oct 29	at	FC Stars (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Stars (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FSA FC (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 1	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun May 9	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun May 16	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Coast Surf SC

2.40

WWWWL

-0.62

+0.11

60%

4.1

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Select (3rd)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Stars · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC · Sat Oct 31 at FSA FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Stars (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FSA FC (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FSA FC (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	4–1	92%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 1	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun May 2	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun May 9	at	Select (3rd)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manhattan SC

2.25

WLWW

-0.49

+0.04

44%

4.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Select (3rd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs SUSA FC ACADEMY · Sat Oct 24 vs Scorpions SC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Stars See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Stars (9th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FSA FC (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	2–0	84%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FSA FC (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Select (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars (9th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sun May 2	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 8	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	2–0	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Meadow Soccer Club

1.80

WWLWL

-1.19

+0.33

6.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FSA FC (7th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	7–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC · Sat Nov 7 vs East Coast Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 at Manhattan SC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Select (3rd)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Stars (9th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Stars (9th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FSA FC (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	2–0	67%
·	Sat May 1	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Select (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun May 23	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	2–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FSA FC

1.75

LWDW

+0.89

-0.23

31%

5.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Select (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oakwood Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Connecticut · Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf SC See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Select (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat May 1	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Stars (9th)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC ACADEMY

-13

1.00

LLWLL

+0.73

-0.08

9.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Select (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Manhattan SC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Stars · Sat Nov 7 at AC Connecticut See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Stars (9th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FSA FC (7th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Select (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Stars (9th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FSA FC (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun May 2	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars

-1

0.00

+0.47

+0.00

7.6

Sat Oct 3

FSA FC (7th)

2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf SC · Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC · Thu Oct 29 vs Select See all 21 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–2	19%
·	Thu Oct 29	vs	Select (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Select (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FSA FC (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat May 15	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	3–1	70%
·	Sun May 16	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	3–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Connecticut FC United

-14

0.00

LLLLL

+0.75

-0.01

11.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Select (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Connecticut · Sun Oct 25 vs Oakwood Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Manhattan SC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars (9th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	FSA FC (7th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FSA FC (7th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	0–2	5%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Select (3rd)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Stars (9th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun May 2	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sat May 22	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oakwood Soccer Club

-16

0.00

LLLL

+1.04

-0.00

10.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	1–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FSA FC · Sun Oct 25 at Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 1 at AC Connecticut See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FSA FC (7th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AC Connecticut (12th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Select (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Stars (9th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	AC Connecticut (12th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FSA FC (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat May 1	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun May 2	at	Select (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Stars (9th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun May 23	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AC Connecticut

-17

0.00

LLLLL

+1.07

-0.08

10.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Select (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SUSA FC (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Manhattan SC (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Connecticut FC United · Sun Oct 25 at FSA FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Oakwood Soccer Club See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Connecticut FC United (10th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FSA FC (7th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Scorpions SC (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Stars (9th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (11th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	East Coast Surf SC (4th)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Manhattan SC (5th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FSA FC (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat May 1	at	Select (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun May 2	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 8	vs	SUSA FC (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat May 15	vs	FC Stars (9th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Scorpions SC (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Connecticut FC United (10th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.