Mississippi Rush United
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU14 · 10 teams · Mississippi Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.2 against · 2.32 expected points)
| Season so far | Mississippi Rush United | Alabama FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-2 | 0-0-7 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L D W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at FC Alliance TN | — |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at Tennessee SC | 0–5 vs Alabama FC Huntsville |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.05 | -1.65 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.67 | +0.05 |
Common opponents: Lobos Rush — we 3–2; they 0–3. Germantown Legends — we 2–2; they 1–3. FC Alliance TN — we 5–0, 3–2; they 2–3. North Georgia Soccer Academy — we 1–0, 0–3; they 1–3. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 1–1; they 1–4. Tennessee SC — we 1–5; they 2–3.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Alabama FC average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 2 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Alabama FC concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–5 vs Alabama FC Huntsville.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Alabama FC have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Alabama FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mississippi Rush United – Alabama FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.89 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.89 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.56 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 30%
- 5th 54%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississippi Surf | 2.75 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.49) | 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 2.71 (+0.96) | 1st (2.59) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Tennessee SC | 2.43 (+0.68) | 3rd (2.41) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
How the results connect
28 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Mississippi Rush United to Alabama FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.54 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Alabama FC 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -17 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 1.81 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Alabama FC Huntsville 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +32 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.30 | 1.66 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Mississippi Surf 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +26 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.32 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 03:00 PM |
Tennessee SC 3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +25 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.49 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +5 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.34 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM |
Mississippi Surf 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +26 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.47 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Alabama FC Huntsville 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +32 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.19 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Alabama FC 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.08 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 03:00 PM |
Germantown Legends 8th · 1-1-5 · GD -35 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.67 | 1.42 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Lobos Rush 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -12 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.02 | 1.46 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Mississippi Surf | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 4 | +26 | 22 | 2.75 | WDWWW | -0.68 | +0.09 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 2 | +32 | 19 | 2.71 | WWDWW | -0.71 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Feb 27 at FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Tennessee SC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 5 | +25 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWDW | +0.05 | -0.43 | 100% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 at Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Mississippi Rush United | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 14 | 1.75 | WDLWL | -0.67 | +0.54 | 30% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Nov 21 at Mississippi Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 10 | 1.43 | LDLWL | +0.32 | -0.26 | 65% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Nov 21 at Germantown Legends See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLLW | +0.92 | -0.37 | 5% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Lobos Rush | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLWW | +0.26 | -0.14 | 1% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 11 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Nov 21 vs Tennessee SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Germantown Legends | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 42 | -35 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWLL | +0.63 | +0.05 | 0% | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Alliance TN | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 22 | -16 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.93 | -0.25 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 11 at Lobos Rush · Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Alabama FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 24 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.05 | +0.32 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United · Sun Nov 8 at Mississippi Surf · Sat Feb 27 at North Georgia Soccer Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.