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Lobos Rush

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU14 · 10 teams · Lobos Rush (all teams)

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7th
2-0-5 record · 7 played
0.86 points per game
-12 goal diff · 8–20
LLLWWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.0
+0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 21, 11:00 AM

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Lobos Rush
7th · 0.86 PPG
vs
Tennessee SC
3rd · 2.43 PPG

W.C. Johnson Turf Park, Field 2 ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.7 against · 0.23 expected points)

Season so farLobos RushTennessee SC
Position7th3rd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-55-2-0
Points per game0.862.43
Goals for / game1.14.3
Goals against / game2.90.7
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless31
Form (recent first)W W L L LW D W D W
Biggest win3–0 at Alabama FC14–0 vs Germantown Legends
Worst loss0–5 at Tennessee SC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.98+2.26
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.26+0.05

Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 0–5 at Tennessee SC (L)

Common opponents: Mississippi Rush United — we 2–3; they 5–1. Mississippi Surf — we 0–2; they 1–1. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 0–4; they 2–1. Alabama FC Huntsville — we 1–5; they 0–0. Alabama FC — we 3–0; they 3–2. Germantown Legends — we 2–1; they 14–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Tennessee SC score 4.3/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Tennessee SC concede only 0.7/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs Mississippi Surf, 0–4 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro, 0–5 at Tennessee SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 5%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    North Georgia Soccer Academy sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.86.

    A point moves us above North Georgia Soccer Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Tennessee SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lobos Rush – Tennessee SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Win
1.13 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
0.88 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Loss
0.75 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
7.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 23%
  7. 7th 46%
  8. 8th 22%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Mississippi Surf 2.75 (+1.89) 2nd (2.49) 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Alabama FC Huntsville 2.71 (+1.85) 1st (2.59) 43 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Tennessee SC 2.43 (+1.57) 3rd (2.41) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Mississippi Rush United 1.75 (+0.89) 5th (1.46) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5 Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 1.43 (+0.57) 4th (1.57) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6 North Georgia Soccer Academy 1.00 (+0.14) 6th (1.17) A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Lobos Rush to Tennessee SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
23 favour them
-5.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–5 3–0 2–3 0–2 1–1 1–5 0–0 0–4 1–2 2–3 1–5 2–1 0–14 5–0 1–4 3–1 Lobos Rush 7th Alabama FC 10th Mississippi Surf 1st Alabama FC Huntsvil… 2nd Tennessee SC Murfre… 5th Mississippi Rush Un… 4th Germantown Legends 8th Tennessee SC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 20

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 6th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
09:00 AM
no score posted		 North Georgia Soccer Academy
6th · 2-0-4 · GD -9		 Home
Mike Rose Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.42 0.93 Upside
Sun Oct 11
09:00 AM
no score posted		 FC Alliance TN
9th · 1-0-5 · GD -16		 Home
Mike Rose Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.73 1.02 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM		 Tennessee SC
3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +25		 Home
W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.23 0.94 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM		 Tennessee SC Murfreesboro
5th · 3-1-3 · GD +5		 Home
W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.81 0.93 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD		 Germantown Legends
8th · 1-1-5 · GD -35		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.28 1.04 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 North Georgia Soccer Academy
6th · 2-0-4 · GD -9		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.15 1.05 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 FC Alliance TN
9th · 1-0-5 · GD -16		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.44 1.08 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Mississippi Surf
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +26		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.15 1.01 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Mississippi Rush United
4th · 4-2-2 · GD +1		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.79 1.00 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Alabama FC
10th · 0-0-7 · GD -17		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.86 1.05 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Alabama FC Huntsville
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +32		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.13 1.00 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Mississippi Surf 8710 304+26 222.75 WDWWW -0.68 +0.09 100% 2.1
2 Alabama FC Huntsville 7610 342+32 192.71 WWDWW -0.71 -0.09 100% 1.5
3 Tennessee SC 7520 305+25 172.43 WDWDW +0.05 -0.43 100% 2.4
4 Mississippi Rush United 8422 1615+1 141.75 WDLWL -0.67 +0.54 30% 4.9
5 Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 7313 2116+5 101.43 LDLWL +0.32 -0.26 65% 4.5
6 North Georgia Soccer Academy 6204 615-9 61.00 WLLLW +0.92 -0.37 5% 6.2
7 Lobos Rush 7205 820-12 60.86 LLLWW +0.26 -0.14 1% 7.0
8 Germantown Legends 7115 742-35 40.57 LLWLL +0.63 +0.05 0% 9.1
9 FC Alliance TN 6105 622-16 30.50 LLLLL +0.93 -0.25 0% 7.8
10 Alabama FC 7007 724-17 00.00 LLLLL +0.05 +0.32 0% 9.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.