Folsom Lake Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · Golden State BU14 · 7 teams · Folsom Lake Surf (all teams)

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3rd

5-0-2 record · 7 played

2.14 points per game

+19 goal diff · 29–10

LLWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5

-0.64 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Folsom Lake Surf
3rd · 2.14 PPG

Placer United
1st · 2.29 PPG

Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 14 ↗

45% 20% 35%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.0 against · 1.55 expected points)

Season so far	Folsom Lake Surf	Placer United
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-2	5-1-1
Points per game	2.14	2.29
Goals for / game	4.1	2.7
Goals against / game	1.4	0.9
Clean sheets	1	3
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W W W L L	W W D W W
Biggest win	10–0 vs Mustang Soccer -RL	5–0 vs Davis Legacy
Worst loss	1–3 at Placer United	0–2 vs San Juan SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.63	+1.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.64	-0.26

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–3 at Placer United (L)

Common opponents: Mustang Soccer -RL — we 10–0, 3–1; they 0–0. Davis Legacy — we 4–1; they 5–0, 5–1. San Juan SC — we 0–2; they 0–2. Association FC — we 3–2; they 5–2. Club America Nido Aguila | Valley — we 8–1; they 1–0.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Placer United concede only 0.9/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs San Juan SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 20% / loss 35%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Placer United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Folsom Lake Surf – Placer United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.25 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Win 2.25 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 2.00 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.88 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

25% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.5 average finish

1st 25%
2nd 27%
3rd 26%
4th 23%
5th <1%
6th
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Placer United	2.29 (+0.15)	2nd (2.14)	20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
2	San Juan SC	2.29 (+0.15)	1st (2.18)	20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection

How the results connect

37 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Folsom Lake Surf to Placer United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us

4 even

15 favour them

+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 2nd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	Placer United 1st · 5-1-1 · GD +13	Home Davis Legacy Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–1	1.55	2.07	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM	Davis Legacy 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -8	Away Davis Legacy Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	3–1	2.39	2.10	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	Association FC 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +15	Home Folsom Lake College · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–2	1.72	2.07	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 10:30 AM	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley 6th · 1-0-6 · GD -20	Home Folsom Lake College · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	5–0	2.89	2.14	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 11:30 AM	Los Gatos United Soccer Club	Home Econome Family Park	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.35	2.16	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 TBD	San Juan SC 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +12	Away	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.20	2.08	Upside
Sat Apr 24 11:30 AM	1974 Newark FC	Home Econome Family Park	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.35	2.10	Bank it
Sat May 8 11:30 AM	El Camino FC Salinas	Home Econome Family Park	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.35	2.12	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Placer United

+13

2.29

WWDWW

-0.26

-0.08

100%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Association FC (4th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	5–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Oct 31 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 at Mustang Soccer -RL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Association FC (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	COSC (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Marin FC (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	3–0	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Juan SC

+12

2.29

WWDWW

-0.58

+0.09

100%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Placer United (1st)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Association FC (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Placer United · Sat Nov 7 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Nov 14 vs Davis Legacy See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Placer United (1st)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	3–0	94%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (—)	2–0	67%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	COSC (—)	2–0	67%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (—)	2–0	67%
·	Sat May 8	vs	MVLA (—)	2–0	67%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Association FC (4th)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Folsom Lake Surf

+19

2.14

LLWWW

-0.64

+0.12

100%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	8–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Association FC (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Placer United (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	10–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 vs Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Placer United (1st)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Association FC (4th)	2–2	52%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (—)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	1974 Newark FC (—)	3–1	74%
·	Sat May 8	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (—)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Association FC

+15

2.14

WWLWL

-0.54

+0.15

100%

3.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Placer United (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	10–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	COSC (—)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Placer United (1st)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (—)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Marin FC (—)	3–1	68%
·	Sat May 8	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (—)	3–1	68%
·	Sat May 15	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Davis Legacy

-8

0.67

LLDLW

+0.65

-0.47

5.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Placer United (1st)	1–5
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Placer United (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Association FC (4th)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Association FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Association FC (4th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	MVLA (—)	1–2	33%
·	Sat May 15	at	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	2–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Club America Nido Aguila | Valley

-20

0.43

LLLLL

+0.45

+0.10

6.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Association FC (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Placer United (1st)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Davis Legacy See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (7th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Association FC (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (—)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (—)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Marin FC (—)	1–2	13%
·	Sat May 15	at	Placer United (1st)	0–3	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mustang Soccer -RL

-31

0.14

LLDLL

+0.89

-0.11

6.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Association FC (4th)	0–5
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Placer United (1st)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Association FC (4th)	0–10
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Folsom Lake Surf (3rd)	0–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (6th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–3	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Placer United (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Marin FC (—)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	MVLA (—)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	1974 Newark FC (—)	0–3	7%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.