Club America Nido Aguila | Valley

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River Islands Soccer Complex, Field #1 ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.2 against · 1.87 expected points)

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 2–1 at Mustang Soccer -RL (W)

Common opponents: Placer United — we 0–1; they 0–0. Association FC — we 0–2; they 0–10, 0–5. Folsom Lake Surf — we 1–8; they 0–10, 1–3. San Juan SC — we 0–3, 1–4; they 0–3.

• They struggle to score
  Mustang Soccer -RL average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 5 of 7.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Mustang Soccer -RL concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–10 at Folsom Lake Surf.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–1 vs Placer United, 0–2 vs Association FC, 0–3 vs San Juan SC, 0–5 vs Davis Legacy.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 55% / draw 22% / loss 23%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Davis Legacy sit 5th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.43.

  A point moves us above Davis Legacy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Mustang Soccer -RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Club America Nido Aguila | Valley – Mustang Soccer -RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th 3%
6. 6th 76%
7. 7th 21%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.80 PPG if we win out).