Association FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Golden State BU14 · 7 teams · Association Football Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 11 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.5 against · 2.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Association FC | Davis Legacy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W W | W L D L L |
| Biggest win | 10–0 at Mustang Soccer -RL | 5–0 at Club America Nido Aguila | Valley |
| Worst loss | 2–5 at Placer United | 0–5 at Placer United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.22 | -0.61 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.54 | +0.65 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–0 vs Davis Legacy (W)
Common opponents: San Juan SC — we 2–1; they 1–1. Club America Nido Aguila | Valley — we 2–0; they 5–0. Folsom Lake Surf — we 2–3; they 1–4. Placer United — we 2–5; they 0–5, 1–5.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 70% / draw 15% / loss 15%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Davis Legacy Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Folsom Lake Surf sit 3rd on 2.14 PPG; we are on 2.14.A point moves us above Folsom Lake Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Davis Legacy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Association FC – Davis Legacy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 12%
- 2nd 19%
- 3rd 25%
- 4th 44%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Placer United | 2.29 (+0.15) | 2nd (2.14) | 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 2 | San Juan SC | 2.29 (+0.15) | 1st (2.18) | 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 3 | Folsom Lake Surf | 2.14 (+0.00) | 3rd (2.12) | A point next game |
How the results connect
35 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Association FC to Davis Legacy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.15 · 1st hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Davis Legacy 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.24 | 2.15 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Club America Nido Aguila | Valley 6th · 1-0-6 · GD -20 |
Home Alden E. Oliver Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.84 | 2.23 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
Folsom Lake Surf 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–2 | 1.10 | 2.12 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 02:00 PM |
COSC |
Home Alden E. Oliver Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.20 | 2.13 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
Placer United 1st · 5-1-1 · GD +13 |
Home Alden E. Oliver Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 2.07 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 03:00 PM |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club |
Home Witter Sports Complex · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.20 | 2.08 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 03:00 PM |
Marin FC |
Home Witter Sports Complex · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.20 | 2.08 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 04:00 PM |
San Francisco Elite Academy |
Home Alden E. Oliver Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.20 | 2.09 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
San Juan SC 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.10 | 2.03 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Placer United | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | -0.26 | -0.08 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Oct 31 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 at Mustang Soccer -RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | San Juan SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | -0.58 | +0.09 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Placer United · Sat Nov 7 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Nov 14 vs Davis Legacy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 15 | 2.14 | LLWWW | -0.64 | +0.12 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 vs Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Association FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWL | -0.54 | +0.15 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Davis Legacy | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDLW | +0.65 | -0.47 | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Association FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Club America Nido Aguila | Valley | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.45 | +0.10 | 0% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Davis Legacy See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Mustang Soccer -RL | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 33 | -31 | 1 | 0.14 | LLDLL | +0.89 | -0.11 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.