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West Side Alliance

ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU18/19 · 10 teams · West Side Alliance SC (all teams)

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6th
5-1-4 record · 10 played
1.60 points per game
+10 goal diff · 31–21
DWWWLlast 5
30% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8
-0.35 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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West Side Alliance
6th · 1.60 PPG
at
Arkansas Rising
1st · 3.00 PPG

Burns Park , Field 14 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.5 for, 4.2 against · 0.36 expected points)

Season so farWest Side AllianceArkansas Rising
Position6th1st
Record (W-D-L)5-1-410-0-0
Points per game1.603.00
Goals for / game3.14.9
Goals against / game2.10.9
Clean sheets34
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W W W DW W W W W
Biggest win7–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic8–1 vs Arkansas Comets FC
Worst loss0–4 at FC Tulsa Academy—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.70+2.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.35-0.52

Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 1–4 vs Arkansas Rising (L)

Common opponents: Oklahoma Cosmos — we 3–2, 1–3; they 6–0. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 2–3; they 5–3. Arkansas Comets FC — we 4–3; they 8–2, 8–1. FC Tulsa Academy — we 0–4; they 2–0. Tulsa SC — we 2–2; they 2–1. Oklahoma Celtic — we 7–0, 6–0; they 5–0. Kernow Storm FC — we 5–0; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Arkansas Rising score 4.9/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Arkansas Rising concede only 0.9/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at FC Tulsa Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 9%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Arkansas Rising have won 10 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Burns Park .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    OK Energy FC Frontier sit 5th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.60.

    A point moves us above OK Energy FC Frontier on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Rising game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Side Alliance – Arkansas Rising) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.45 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.73 PPG
5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Draw
1.55 PPG
6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Loss
1.45 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
30% top 4
70% below the top 4
4.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 23%
  5. 5th 53%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Arkansas Rising 3.00 (+1.40) 1st (2.78) 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Tulsa Academy 2.67 (+1.07) 2nd (2.51) 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Broken Arrow Soccer Club 2.20 (+0.60) 3rd (1.96) 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4 Tulsa SC 2.00 (+0.40) 4th (1.86) 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
5 OK Energy FC Frontier 1.67 (+0.07) 6th (1.34) A point next game

How the results connect

81 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link West Side Alliance to Arkansas Rising through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us
4 even
57 favour them
-2.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 6–0 0–5 5–0 1–5 2–2 1–2 7–0 2–3 3–5 4–3 2–8 3–2 0–6 0–4 0–2 1–8 1–3 2–3 0–4 West Side Alliance 6th Oklahoma Celtic 9th Kernow Storm FC 8th Tulsa SC 4th Broken Arrow Soccer… 3rd Arkansas Comets FC 10th Oklahoma Cosmos 7th FC Tulsa Academy 2nd OK Energy FC Fronti… 5th Arkansas Rising 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 5th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
03:00 PM
no score posted
OK Energy FC Frontier
5th · 5-0-4 · GD -6
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–2 2.22 1.66 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
Arkansas Rising
1st · 10-0-0 · GD +40
Away far trip
Burns Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–4 0.36 1.55 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Arkansas Comets FC
10th · 0-0-11 · GD -32
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
4–1 2.51 1.62 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
FC Tulsa Academy
2nd · 8-0-1 · GD +24
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 1.57 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
Broken Arrow Soccer Club
3rd · 7-1-2 · GD +13
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.46 1.56 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
04:00 PM
Kernow Storm FC
8th · 1-0-8 · GD -25
Away far trip
Rolling Hills Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.52 1.62 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM
OK Energy FC Frontier
5th · 5-0-4 · GD -6
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
3–2 1.91 1.64 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
03:00 PM
Tulsa SC
4th · 6-2-2 · GD +9
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.46 1.63 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Arkansas Rising 101000 499+40 303.00 WWWWW -0.52 -0.11 100% 1.1
2 FC Tulsa Academy 9801 339+24 242.67 WWWWW -0.03 -0.43 100% 1.9
3 Broken Arrow Soccer Club 10712 3017+13 222.20 WWWLW -0.49 +0.35 89% 3.5
4 Tulsa SC 10622 2112+9 202.00 DWLWW -0.31 +0.19 78% 3.9
5 OK Energy FC Frontier 9504 2127-6 151.67 WWWLW -0.29 +0.36 2% 6.3
6 West Side Alliance 10514 3121+10 161.60 DWWWL -0.35 +0.15 30% 4.8
7 Oklahoma Cosmos 9306 1722-5 91.00 WLLWL +0.54 -0.42 1% 6.5
8 Kernow Storm FC 9108 1035-25 30.33 LLLLL +0.59 -0.10 0% 8.7
9 Oklahoma Celtic 9108 634-28 30.33 LLLLL +0.23 +0.28 0% 9.1
10 Arkansas Comets FC 110011 1547-32 00.00 LLLLL +0.65 -0.44 0% 9.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.36 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.